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NewsThis page was started in September 2005. 1st September 2010 The Food Price Index of the FAO (United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation) has risen by five per cent. This surge reflects the rise in international wheat prices after the drought in the Russian Federation followed by the restrictions of wheat sales subsequently introduced by that country; subsidiary causes were higher sugar and oilseed prices. There have been big global rises in the price of meat also. Forecasts of production have been lowered for barley and rice, although maize production is heading for an all time high. The stated reasons for price rises are droughts and fires (e.g. Russia and Australia), floods (e.g. Pakistan), and with meat, rising demand in Asia and the Middle East, coupled with reduced cattle production and an increase in the cost of grain used in animal feed. We comment that the rising global human population continues to challenge the ability of the world to feed that population. This problem is aggravated by the fact that in some developing countries, notably China and India with their very large populations, there has been a big rise in the size of the middle classes, with people quite naturally desiring to attain the standard of living experienced in developed nations like the USA and the UK. “Wheat sends food prices up”: 26th and 27th August 2010 “Key findings The Telegraph reported on this new statistical release the following day with the heading “Babies to foreign mothers at record levels”: ONS material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk 26th August 2010 The first part of the Summary Statistics is as follows: “The latest provisional LTIM and IPS data suggest:
It is the last point that a BBC News item highlights: ONS material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk August 2010 The claims she identifies are, first, that recent immigration to the UK has caused higher unemployment; second, that most new jobs in Britain go to foreigners and the number of Britons with jobs falls: August 2010 The Pensions Policy Institute (PPI) has produced a submission to the Department for Work and Pensions. This submission concludes that “the primary driver behind increasing the SPA should be to recognise recent improvements in longevity and potential future improvements in longevity”. The PPI makes suggestions as to by how much the State Pension Age (SPA) should be raised. The amount depends on what proportion of adult life it is judged that people should be in receipt of the state pension. The suggestions are: Pension Policy Institute (click on the little PDF icon to read the full submission) 16th August 2010 Two recent exceptional weather events were the severe recent winter and the long dry period in the first six months of this year. Each of these events has had the effect of reducing the stocks of grass that farmers keep to provide food for their cattle during the next winter: The key feature of last winter was the cold. Consequence: snow lay on the ground much longer than usual. Consequence: farmers could only put out their cattle to feed on grass in the fields for a shorter time than usual. Consequence: farmers used up more of their hay reserves than usual. The dry spring meant that there was less moisture in the soil than usual. Consequence: grass did not grow so well as in a typical year. Consequence: farmers were less able than usual to replenish their grass stocks. Consequence: reduced grass stocks. Reduced stocks led to a rise in hay prices, making things very difficult for farmers, especially 'small' farmers. Thinking now more generally, we know that exceptional weather events are likely to increase with global warming, warming partly caused by growth in the human population (the more people there are, the more overall consumption). Consequence: more environmental degradation including release of the climate changing gas carbon dioxide. But continued human population growth has another effect – an even greater population of people requiring food, including animal products (meat and milk). So there are concerns that world food production might not keep up with population growth. While many experts are optimistic about the future, the fact remains that although for many decades, world food production kept pace with population growth, this century there has been a fall in the stocks of some grains such as wheat. The BBC reported on this spell of hay thefts: Early August 2010 We know that severe weather events across the globe are becoming more frequent and more severe. This is thought to be a consequence of global warming, caused by man's activities, and human population growth has aggravated this warming. At the same time, population growth is one cause of deforestation in upland areas causing an increase in flash floods, and one cause of people, running out of low lying land for house building, trying to build houses on steep slopes in mountainous regions, making them more likely to suffer the lethal effects of flash floods and mud flows. Now we see the massive floods in Pakistan causing fruit and vegetable prices to soar in that country, and fires in Russia following a long hot dry period causing an upward spike in world food prices and a ban on wheat exports from Russia. This all comes after a warning in June from the United Nations (UN) and the Organisation for Economic Co–operation and Development (OECD) that big rises in world food prices over the next ten years are likely to occur (very big rises for wheat, coarse grains, vegetable oils and milk, lesser rises for livestock): Pakistan (fruitnet.com) 28th July 2010 The rapid growth of the world population in the second half of the 20th century has slowed. But the population will continue to grow through reduced mortality and increased logevity. With developed countries, population growth has “essentially peaked”, the little growth remaining will come about through immigration from less developed countries. In contrast, population growth will continue in developing parts of the world (most world growth in the 20th century was in developing countries, caused by reductions in mortality rates). The most populous countries in the world(figures in millions) in 2010 were China: 1,338; India: 1,189; USA: 310; Indonesia: 235. Projections have, for 2050, India: 1,748; China: 1437; USA: 423; Pakistan: 335. In Europe (figures in thousands), the most populous countries in mid–2009 were: Germany: 81,980; France: 62,621; UK: 61,823. Projected for mid–2050: UK: 76,949; Germany: 71,351; France: 69,961. So the UK is projected to ovetake Germany as the most populous country, and the population of Germany is projected to decline. 27th July 2010 21st July 2010 See also 21st July 2010. “Statistical Bulletin. Births and deaths in England and Wales 2009”. See also 24th June 2010. “Fertility. UK fertility remains high”. ONS material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk July 2010 The projections were made for all 16 of the ethnic groups defined for the 2001 census. According to these projections, the ethnic composition of the UK population will change substantially by 2051. The white share of the population will decrease from 92 to 79 % the non-White population will increase from 8 to 21%. Point 19 of the “summary of findings”: The authors of this report say “The results described in this report are both provisional and experimental”. Click on the following link to view the paper (be patient; this is a very large file). 8th July 2010 This is the main conclusion of a survey by the Pew Research Centre (Pew Global Attitudes Project). The survey covered four European countries and the USA. Approval for the ban was in France 82%, Germany 71%, Britain 62%, Spain 59%, but USA only 28%. 30th June 2010 A report by Tim Finch et al of the left-leaning Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) provides details of the changing picture of British emigration and the number of British people living abroad “Global Brit. Making the most of the British diaspora”. It shows among other things that British emigration has been falling in recent years. 28th June 2010 The number of workers entering the UK from outside Europe will be controlled by a new limit the Home Secretary, Theresa May, announced today. Net migration will be scaled back to the levels of the 1990s – to tens of thousands rather than hundreds of thousands. Introducing a limit on migrants from outside Europe coming here to work is just one of the ways the Government intends to achieve this. Details of how the final limit will be delivered will be agreed following a 12-week consultation with businesses. In the meantime an interim limit will be introduced to ensure there is no rush of applications and the number of work visas issued stays below 2009 levels. Home Office material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: Home Office web site HO 25th June 2010 “Research published by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) today, reveals dangerously high levels of racial violence in the UK - a violence which is spreading into new areas”. Press Release: 24th June 2010 “The population of the UK was 61,792,000 in mid–2009. This is an increase of 394,000 (0.6 per cent) on mid–2008 and is equivalent to an average increase of over 1,000 people a day. Population growth has increased over recent decades. This latest increase compares with an average annual growth of: 0.6 per cent since 2001; 0.3 per cent per year between 1991 and 2001; and 0.2 per cent per year between 1981 and 1991. Changes in births, deaths and the pattern of international migration into and out of the UK have all contributed to population change. Natural change was the largest contributor to population growth until the year to mid–1999 and more recently in the years to mid–2008 and mid–2009. Between these periods, net migration was the main driver of population change. In the year to mid–2002, net migration accounted for 70% of the total population change. Since 2002, natural change has accounted for an increasing proportion of total population change; in the year to mid–2009 it accounted for over half of total population growth (55%). …natural change contributed 217,000 to population growth in the year to mid–2009, slightly less than in the year to mid–2008. The overall increase in natural change since the mid–2002 figure of 62,000 is mainly attributable to a growth in the number of births between 2002 and 2008, although a decrease in the numbers of deaths over this period has also played a part. Until mid–2008, the number of births was increasing partly due to rising fertility among UK born women and partly because there were more women of childbearing ages due to inflows of female migrants to the UK. However the recent decline is driven by a decrease in the UK born female population of childbearing age. In comparison, net migration contributed to 176,000 of population growth in the year to mid–2009, an increase of 23% on the mid 2002 figure of 143,000”. ONS material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk. 13th June 2010 On 17 May 2010, the Chancellor announced the establishment of a new Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This has now produced a pre–budget forecast. In what follows we only look at main demographic factors. The report speaks of 'liabilities and fiscal pressures' one of which is the ageing of the UK population: From chapter five of the report: “Ageing pressures. © Crown copyright 2010. OBR 27th May 2010 The UK Home Office today released citizenship statistics for 2009 together with data for previous years this century. “Applications for citizenship increased by 24 per cent in 2009 to 193,810”. And “the number of persons granted British citizenship rose by 58 per cent to 203,790 in 2009”. “The main nationalities granted citizenship were Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Philippine” (our underlining) . Home Office material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: Home Office Statistical Bulletin. British Citizenship Statistics United Kingdom, 2009. 27th May 2010 “Since Poland and seven other central and Eastern European countries (collectively known as the A8) joined the EU in May 2004 around 71 per cent of all A8 citizens migrating to the UK have been Polish citizens. Between the year ending December 2003 and the year ending September 2009 the Polish–born population of the UK increased from 75,000 to 520,000”. “More recently immigration of Polish people has declined and emigration has risen. Immigration was highest in 2007 at around 96,000 Polish citizens, but this declined to 64,000 in 2008 while emigration increased from 19,000 to 54,000 over the same time period”. This ONS document also gives information on the spread aross the UK, age structure, and employment of the Polish population in the UK. ONS material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk 27th May 2010 This is the title of the latest UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) Migration Statistics Quarterly Report (May 2010). Here are key features on migration per se. The report also contains information on National Insurance numbers allocated to non–UK nationals, and work applications of A8 country citizens. • Long–term immigration to the UK declined in the year to September 2009 (503,000 compared with 555,000 in the previous year to September 2008, a fall of 9 per cent). ONS material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk In relation to these new migration statistics, one UK newspaper comments on the policies of main political parties and the attitude of the general public to migration trends: 27th May 2010 This is the title of a new UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) Statistical Bulletin. Here are key features of this report. Subnational population projections provide estimates of the future population of English Government Office Regions (GORs), local authorities, strategic health authorities and primary care organisations assuming a continuation of recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The population of all GORs is projected to rise over the ten year period 2008 to 2018. The East is projected to be the fastest growing English region over this period. The population of this region is projected to increase by 10 per cent over the decade to 2018, rising by over 0.5 million to 6.3 million …. Over the same period, the population of five other regions (London, Yorkshire and The Humber, South West, East Midlands and South East) are also projected to increase by 8 per cent or more. In contrast, the North West and North East are projected to have the smallest percentage increases in population between 2008 and 2018. The subnational population projections are based on the assumption that recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration at local authority level will continue; they take no account of local development policy, economic factors or the capacity of areas to accommodate population. The projections provide the population levels and age structure that would result if the assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels were realised. Colchester is projected to have the largest percentage growth … over the decade to 2018. The population of Colchester is projected to increase by 19 per cent between 2008 and 2018, a rise of 33,000 to 207,000 …. Six of the ten fastest growing local authorities are in the East. The populations of only eight of the 354 local authorities in England … are projected to fall over the decade to 2018. Five of these eight authorities are in the North West (Sefton, Burnley, Wirral, Ellesmere Port & Neston and Chester). The 2008-based Subnational Population Projections reflect the ageing of the population over time. In 2008, 16 per cent of the population of England was estimated to be aged 65 and over, with the South West region estimated to have the highest percentage of older persons (19 per cent). In 2033, over a quarter of the population of the South West is projected to be aged 65 and over …. By 2033, it is projected that over 40 per cent of the population of England will be aged 65 and over in the following local authorities: West Somerset (43 per cent), Berwick-upon-Tweed, South Shropshire, West Dorset (all 41 per cent), Rother and North Norfolk (both 40 per cent). Over the next 25 years, only two local authorities, Tower Hamlets and Barking and Dagenham, are projected to see a fall in the percentage of their population aged 65 and over. ONS material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk A UK Newspaper reported on this bulletin, linking it with new immigration and passport figures: 27th May 2010 For sometime now there have been discussions in the European Union (EU) about travel restrictions for citizens of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Today the European Commission adopted proposals that had been made with the purpose of allowing citizens of these countries to travel to EU countries together with Switzerland, Norway and Iceland ('Schengen area countries), but not the UK and Ireland which do not subscribe to the 'common visa policy'. Under these proposals, provided they have biometric passports, the citizens of these three countries would be able to travel for 90 days without being required to have and carry visas. However, before a final decision to implement these proposals is made, certain other changes remain to be made in these three countries such as strengthening law enforcement capacities. A UK newspaper has reacted by expressing concerns that this new development could facilitate illegal entry into the UK from these countries. European Commission 25th May 2010 Key features include the following: Provisional fertility rates for 2009 give an average number of 1.95 children per woman in England and Wales. This represents a slight decrease in fertility from 1.97 children per woman in 2008. This is the first annual decrease since 2001 when the average number of children per woman was 1.63, having fallen from 1.65 in 2000. The provisional 2009 total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.95 children is still relatively high compared with recent years, although it is notably lower than in the 1960s when it reached a peak of 2.93 in 1964. Compared with 2008, there have been small decreases in fertility rates for women aged under 35. In contrast, fertility rates for women aged 35–39 and 40–44 continued to increase in 2009. Provisional age–standardised mortality rates have continued their downward trend in 2009, with 6,579 per million population for males and 4,633 per million population for females. Compared with 2008, this is a fall of 4.0 per cent for males and 5.4 per cent for females. There were 706,248 live births in England and Wales in 2009, compared with 708,711 in 2008, a fall of 0.3 per cent. This is the first annual decrease in births since 2001 when there were 594,634 live births (down from 604,441 in 2000) and represents a change from the rising numbers of births observed over the past seven years. The proportion of live births in England and Wales, to mothers born outside the United Kingdom continued to rise in 2009, reaching 24.7 per cent compared with 24.1 per cent in 2008 and 14.3 per cent in 1999. The proportion of births to mothers born outside the UK has increased every year since 1990 when it was just under 12 per cent. ONS Material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk Late April – early May 2010 A study in the journal Science, using 31 indicators of biodiversity, carried out by an international team of experts, paints a very depressing picture of decline in global biodiversity. Science, 29th April 3rd May 2010 During the last of the televised debates between main party leaders prior to the general election, the liberal party leader stated, emphatically, that 80% of people coming into the UK came from the European Union. Then in the immediate confrontation with the conservative leader following his statement, the liberal leader repeated his claim. The leader used this 80% figure to conclude that the conservative party plan to cap immigration would not work: EU people have free movement within the EU, so any cap could only apply to the small percentage of people who come to the UK from outside the EU. The liberal leader had got his facts very wrong. Less than half of the people coming into the UK come from the European Union. But we also note that the conservative leader did not seem familiar with the relevant facts either. So to put the record straight on this basic demographic point, we gave the facts about migration to the UK in a box at the end of section 3c of the UK section of our Population Trends page. We also note that the liberal party leader's statement was about people coming into the UK. Strictly speaking, this refers to immigration only. But even if we look at net immigration, the EU contribution remains well under 50 %. The Daily Mail had an article about this matter on the first of May. 31st March 2010 Concern has been expressed by the general public for a long time now about the level of immigration to the UK. Now the Prime Minister in a podcast has quoted figures that suggest the recent fall in net immigration was greater than some people supposed and he in effect argued the figures supported the Labour Party claim that they are improving control of migration. But the Prime Minister got some of his figures wrong and this led to complaints from some quarters to the Chairman of the independent UK Statistics Authority, Sir Michael Scholar. Sir Michael then wrote a letter to the Prime Minister pointing out the mistakes, with copies to persons who had complained about the Prime Ministers figures. Downing Street has said that the Prime Minister later corrected his figures. 28th March 2010 This is the title of a new study from the UK left-wing Institute for Public Policy Research. The study says that as the General Election draws near, all of the three main political parties want to emphasise they would be tough on immigration. But the Conservative Party has gone further than the other two parties by its talk of a cap on immigration. The study discusses the impact of a cap against a background of information about actual migration flows. The conclusion is reached that a fixed cap would be “an unworkable policy” and the cap level suggested by the Conservative Party could damage the economy. 25th February 2010 These statistics of long term migration compare figures for the year ending June 2008 and the year ending June 2009, so are particularly important in relation to the question, how has the recession affected migration? As far as Total Migration is concerned, total immigration exceeded total emigration, net migration (gross immigration minus gross emigration) being 168,000 in the year to June 2008, 147,000 in the year to June 2009, so a slight fall. If we look at citizens of the A8 group of countries (countries in central and eastern Europe that joined the European Union in 2004), immigration exceeded emigration in the year ending June in both 2008 and 2009, but the gap between immigration and emigration narrowed between these two periods, net migration being 57,000 (2008) and 10,000 (2009). This narrowing of the gap was caused by a fall in immigration and a rise in emigration. Information on the contributions of different A8 countries to migration flows is provided by the Worker Registration Scheme. Poland has been the largest contributor of immigrants to Britain since the accession of the A8 countries, but there was a fall in initial applications to the scheme from Poland 2008 to 2009. In contrast, applications from Latvia and Lithuania increased during the same period. But Poland still remained the main country contributing to the total number of applicants in 2009. Applicants from Poland, Latvia and Lithuania together made up 80 per cent of approved applicants in 2009. ONS. Migration Statistics Quarterly Report February 2009 15th to 17th February 2010 The government claims that many of the East European migrants only stayed a short while and have now returned home, but town council officials of some towns that have experienced high levels of immigration (Slough, Peterborough and Boston) challenge this view. They claim that so many of the immigrants have in fact stayed in Britain that council health, social care and municipal services remain under severe strain (council officials claim the official immigrant number figures – on which their grants are based – underestimate the actual size of immigrant populations). Some schools now have large and increasing numbers of immigrant children. Financial Times 15th February 9th and 10th February 2010 The claim, first made last year, was that a draft policy paper by government departments argued for the use of immigration not just for economic purposes, but also to further social policy objectives. Certain sections of the document were subsequently removed so that only an economic reason for promoting immigration remained in the document finally published by the government. It is argued that the original draft document suggested immigration should be used to maximise the government's social aims, including promoting multiculturalism, and the document expressed the view that immigration entry controls can contribute to social exclusion. It was Mr. Andrew Neather, a former adviser to Tony Blair who disclosed the existence of the draft document, and he claimed that government ministers wanted to "rub the Right's nose in diversity". And it was the organisation Migration Watch that used the Freedom of Information law to make the full document public. When this matter was first raised in the media, Jack Straw, the then Home Secretary, denied that in the early 2000s the Government had a deliberate policy to use immigration for political ends and to attack the Right. Daily Mail 3rd February 2010 A questionnaire about immigration sent out by the Townswomen's Guild to its members produced a much higher level of response than it normally receives to its questionnaires. The response revealed considerable disquiet over levels of immigration to the UK. 95 per cent of respondents felt current immigration levels were damaging the environment, and on the question of cultural identity, 95 per cent thought these immigration levels will cause a loss of national identity to some degree. As for the suggestion by the UK Cross-Party Group on Balanced Migration that net migration should be reduced to 50,000 a year, almost 80 per cent of respondents wanted a much greater reduction! And 77 per cent agreed that in the present political climate, one cannot criticise immigration levels without being branded a racist. 22nd January 2010 The economic recession led to some people in the UK thinking many immigrants from the new European States (the so-called A8 countries), mainly Poland, would return home. And recent reports from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) came to the conclusion that more than half of such immigrants had in fact done so. The UK Government's Immigration Minister, Phil Woolas accepted this conclusion, saying that figures from the UK's Office of National Statistics showed that half the 1.5 million people that had come here since 2004 from European countries had now returned home. This conclusion has now been challenged by Professor Krystyna Iglicka, Centre for International Affairs, Warsaw, Poland. She concludes that such a massive return migration has not taken place, and she estimates that about a million Polish migrants are still in Britain. She bases her claim on two sources. First, statistics from the Polish Central Statistics Office showed that the number of Poles working abroad rose consistently until 2008, then fell only very slightly - only a fraction of the British estimates. Second, Prof. Iglicka noted that return migrants who wished to transfer benefits from abroad or claim benefits in Poland, had to register at their local labour offices. And in 2008, only 22,000 had done so in the whole of Poland. Support for Prof. Iglicka's views came from Dr Pawel Kaczmarczyk, Centre for Migration, Warsaw University, who had set up a website to encourage Polish workers to come home. He also said no great return of Polish migrants had taken place. Polish workers have been sending home large sums of money to their families in Poland but the amounts fell by about 20 per cent in 2009. But Prof. Iglicka considered this was not because of workers returning home. Rather it was because of the more difficult economic circumstances during the recession in the UK: Polish workers had to spend their money to survive, instead of sending it home. Mr. Phil Woolas of the UK Home Office said that figures from the UK Office of National Statistics did show that half of the 1.5 million people who had come from European countries had indeed now gone home. Further, in each quarter of 2009, the number of workers from the A8 countries registering to work had fallen by around 30,000. But he admitted that the UK Workers' Registration Scheme (from which estimates were made) did not include either self-employed workers or eastern Europeans from other European Union (EU) countries. However, while there was a pattern of 'circular migration' in the EU, he claimed that some people had been attracted back to Poland through a large EU infrastructure investment fund. See the following reports: 7th January 2010 The problem of foreigners attempting to gain the right to settle in England through sham marriages, has once again become a focus of attention by the media, especially as the result of a BBC investigation that was reported on radio and television channels today. Such marriages are once again on the increase. 6th January 2010 The UK Cross Party Group on Balanced Migration issued a declaration in which the major political parties are urged to "make clear commitments in their General Election manifestos to reduce net immigration..." The declaration expresses serous concern about the forecasted rapid increase in the population of England. While noting that immigration in the past has brought benefits to British life, recent immigration has reached "unprecedented levels", and a recent parliamentary enquiry found "no evidence that net immigration generates significant economic benefits for the existing UK population". The declaration states "We are convinced that failure to take action would be seriously damaging to the future harmony of our society". The declaration was signed by twenty parliamentarians, including the two co-chairmen of the group (one Labour MP, one Conservative MP), Baroness Boothroyd (former Speaker of the House of Commons), and Lord Carey (a formed archbishop of Canterbury). There was much interest in the media over this declaration, for example from the newspaper Mail Online and the BBC. In their articles, both these sources referred to what Lord Carey said about the need to reduce immigration from his Christian standpoint at the launch of the declaration: The Mail noted Lord Carey argued we need to cut immigration and stand up for Britain's "Christian values", and the BBC reported that Lord Carey said immigration could lead to violence and immigrants should "have an understanding of the country's Christian heritage". Late December 2009 Laos lies between Thailand to the west and Vietnam to the east,and its history is bound up with the history of these two neighbouring countries. In 1975 Communist forces overthrew the monarchy in Laos. The US had opposed the communists, and they were assisted by one ethnic group in Laos, the Hmong. And the Hmong also heped the US in its bombing attacks on communist Vietnam. After the Communist take over in Laos, many thousands of Hmong people fled to Thailand, and subsequently many of these refugees settled in the USA and other countries. There is now a refugee camp in Thailand about 300 kilometers north of Bangkok, the capital of Thailand. According to some refugee experts, the camp has been home to a mixture of refugees and economic migrants from Laos. Now the Thailand government decided to deport the Hmong inhabitants of the camp to Laos. The United Nations, and the governments of the USA and some other countries have opposed this deportation on the grounds that these Hmong people may be persecuted if they return to Laos. But the Thailand government says it has been told by the Lao government that they will not be persecuted, and the Hmong were deported from the camp. This is not the first time that refugees have been expelled from Thailand. Apparently Cambodian people who fled the Khmer Rouge were returned in 1979 and recently some refugees from Myanmar were expelled. 27th December. Thailand says Hmong repatriation imminent. 22nd December 2009 December 22, 2009 Service under strain as 'Migrant a minute' registers with an NHS doctorNew research published today reveals the pressure that immigration is placing on the NHS. The research, conducted by Migrationwatch, found that in 2007–8, 605,000 people who arrived from overseas registered with a GP in England and Wales – equivalent to one registration a minute, day and night, throughout the year. This was nearly 100,000 more than the inflow recorded in the International Migration Statistics for England and Wales for the same period. This suggests that short–term migrants (or illegal migrants) have also registered. Only 69,000 of the 605,000 were British people returning from a spell overseas. The number of arrivals from overseas registering has increased by 50% in the past seven years but it is only in the last three years that registrations have exceeded the inflow of migrants. Of course migrants also leave. 333,000 left England and Wales in 2007–8 but this “churn” together with the additional population adds to the strains on the NHS. These GP registration data are not precise as they are not compiled for statistical purposes. If anything, they understate the pressure of immigration on the National Health Service as those migrants who move practices within a year would not show up as arrivals from overseas. Furthermore, young men who make up a large proportion of migrants are known to be less likely to register with a GP than other groups. There are no checks on the entitlement of those who seek to register with a GP, indeed doctors have discretion to register whoever they choose. Five years ago, in May 2004, the Government issued proposals to exclude overseas visitors from eligibility to free NHS primary and medical services. The then Secretary of State promised “to ensure that the NHS is first and foremost for the benefit of residents in this country” [1]. On 20 July 2009, five years later and on the last day of Parliament, the government issued proposals which included “to maintain GP discretion to determine registration to access free NHS primary care medical services along with the established principle that GPs may charge non–residents as private patients” [2]. Commenting, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migration watch said: “This amounts to an open door to primary care which can also lead to access to secondary care. The government has been dithering while the NHS has been struggling to cope with the extra numbers resulting from mass immigration. In present financial circumstances it is surely obvious that we do not have the resources to cope with the extra ten million people now officially projected over the next 25 years – seven million as a result of immigration.” Notes: End of Press Release. Intellectual copyright remains the property of MigrationWatch UK © 2001 MigrationWatch UK. All rights reserved. See also: 15th December 2009 This report was based on questionnaires and interviews in the cities of Antwerp, Amsterdam, Berlin, Copenhagen, Hamburg, Leicester, London, Marseille, Paris, Rotterdam and Stockholm. The report says there are between 15 and 20 million Muslims currently living in the EU, and states this number is expected to double by 2025! “On the whole, people from different backgrounds in the 11 cities studied by the Open Society Institute said they got along well together and were willing to help each other”. In terms of values there were differences between Muslims and non–Muslims. Muslims rated 'respect for religion'' more highly than non–Muslims. And with 'feelings of belonging', there were also differences. Muslims had a greater feeling of belonging to neighbourhood and city rather than belonging to the nation. In contrast, for non–Muslims, feeling of belonging to the nation was either greater than or similar to feeling of belonging to city and community. “Religious discrimination against Muslims remains a critical barrier to full and equal participation in society” being a widespread phenomenon that increased during the past five years. European-born Muslim men thought the police were “a key source of unfair treatment and discrimination”. And some Muslim pupils still suffer from racism and prejudice at schools. On the other hand, the report found that there was frequent contact of Muslims with non–Muslims at work, schools, shops, in public spaces such as transport and parks, and in the home. The report says this finding conflicts with the view that Muslims live parallel or segregated lives, or do not feel a sense of belonging to the city and country where they live. Further, “The majority of Muslim and non–Muslim respondents are involved in mixed ethnic and religious organisations”. Most Muslims wished to live in mixed communities, but the report says housing discrimination restricts the choices of many Muslims. The report found that Muslims had a strong desire for more ethnically mixed schools and parents were concerned about the harmful impact of segregation on the education and prospects of their children. Further, Muslims are not integrated into the mainstream labour market, and have higher unemployment and poverty rates than the general population. Muslims are often employed in low–paid jobs, which leads them to lead “segregated or parallel working lives”. “Many Muslims who are not EU citizens remain disenfranchised … and Muslim voters remain less likely than non–Muslim voters to feel that they can influence decisions affecting their city”. The report claims that in terms of degree of trust in city councils and governments, Muslims and non–Muslims “share similar views”. 8th December 2009 26th November 2009 “The number of people leaving the UK for 12 months or more reached a record high in 2008, with an estimated 427,000 people emigrating. This was up from 341,000 in 2007 and 398,000 in 2006. This rise was as a result of a 50 per cent increase in non–British citizens emigrating from 169,000 in 2007 to 255,000 in 2008. Just over half of the 86,000 increase were citizens of the A8 Accession countries which joined the EU in 2004”. “An estimated 590,000 people arrived to live in the UK in 2008, the second highest figure on record after 596,000 in 2006. This compared with 574,000 in 2007 and represents a continuation of the level of immigration seen since 2004. Of all immigrants 505,000 (86 per cent) were non–British citizens in 2008”. “Net migration, the difference between immigration and emigration, decreased from 233,000 in 2007 to 163,000 as a result of increased emigration”. There has been a large increase in the number of people emigrating for work related reasons, particularly those with a definite job to go to. In 2008 an estimated 136,000 people emigrated from the UK to take up a definite job, compared with 100,000 in 2007”. “The International Passenger Survey (IPS) is the main component of these Long–Term International Migration estimates. IPS estimates allow a more detailed analysis of the characteristics of international migrants. This reveals that the increase in emigration of non–British citizens was most notable in the 25 to 44 age group, consistent with higher numbers of people emigrating for work related reasons. The IPS shows an increase in the number of non–British citizens leaving the UK to take up a definite job – up from 45,000 in 2007 to 62,000 in 2008. See ONS ONS Material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk 25th November 2009 A new report by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) “provides a comprehensive, up–to–date account of how the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean has changed from Deep Time until the present day”. “In preparing this volume our approach has been highly cross–disciplinary, with the goal of reflecting the importance of the continent in global issues, such as sea level rise, the separation of natural climate variability from anthropogenic influences, food stocks, biodiversity and carbon uptake by the ocean. One hundred experts in Antarctic science have contributed and drafts of the manuscript were reviewed by over 200 scientists”. We make no attempt here to make a survey of the report, rather we pick out a few points of general public interest. This report highlights the fact that over the last 30 years the ozone hole in the atmosphere over the Antarctic has shielded the continent from much of the effect of global warming. But this hole will not persist indefinitely: over the century ozone concentrations are expected to recover, leading to a significant increase in temperatures across the continent, if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase at their present rate. The result will then be the loss of about one third of the sea ice. New evidence suggests that global sea levels rose at a higher rate than previously projected, during the 1990s and the current century. As for the future, it had previously been thought that between 1980–1999 and 2090–2099 global sea–level rise might be between 18 to 59 cm. “This did not include a contribution from the dynamically driven changes in flow for portions of either the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets. Recent modelling suggests that by 2100 global sea level may rise by up to 1.4m …”. The rise will not be uniform however, having a minimum in the Southern ocean and a maximum in the Arctic ocean. Climate change is already having an effect on the flora of the Antarctic, with two native flowering plants (Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis) in the maritime Antarctic, increasing in abundance at some sites. Temperature and precipitation changes “have increased biological production in lakes, mainly due to decreases in the duration and extent of lake ice cover. Some lakes have become more saline due to drier conditions”. And human activity has led to alien microbes, plants and animals becoming established on sub–Antarctic islands and some parts of the continent. As for the future, decline in sea ice is likely to affect the populations of Emperor penguins and other ice–dependent species and true Antarctic species may be displaced by sub-Antarctic species. The report may be accessed at: 4th November 2009 At the 3rd Global Forum on Migration and Development, UN Secretary–General Ban Ki–moon said on Wednesday that there is a critical need for a deal at the conference on climate change next month in Copenhagen, because we are entering into a critical period when more extreme weather including prolonged droughts, intensive storms and wildfires, will cause people to relocate. The Secretary–General noted that the threat is already evident, and he cited Bangladesh where floods have temporarily displaced millions of people, and Africa where desertification is leading to people leaving rural areas. He also noted that up to now, such movements have been within countries, but this could well change over time. Earth Times 2nd November 2009 A Gallup poll has found that about 16% of adults in the world would like to move to another country if that was possible. The poll involved telephone and face–to–face interviews with over 250,000 adults in 135 countries. Gallup produced a map of the world showing the extent of the desire to migrate by continent and region. There is a big variation between continents/regions. The proportion of persons who said yes, they would like to migrate varied from 38% in Sub–Saharan Africa to 10% in Asia (Europe had 19%). 45 million persons who said yes named either the United Kingdom or France as the country to which they would like to go. 22nd October 2009 A severe drought in Ethiopia has led to the Ethiopian Government asking the international community to provide emergency food aid for 6.2 million people. The drought has been “brought on by four years of bad harvests...made worse by conflict, climate change and population growth”. 21st October 2009 Here are the first three paragraphs of the ONS News Release about the projections. “The population of the United Kingdom is projected to increase by over 4 million to 65.6 million in 2018, according to new population projections released today by the Office for National Statistics. Over the next 25 years, the UK population is projected to rise from an estimated 61.4 million in 2008 to 71.6 million by 2033. It is projected that the population of the UK will exceed 70 million by 2029”. “The 2008–based national population projections are based on the estimated population at the middle of 2008 and a set of demographic assumptions about the future. The projections are not forecasts, and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. These new projections replace the previous 2006–based projections published by ONS in October 2007”. “Of the 10.2 million projected increase in the UK population over the next 25 years, 55 per cent is projected natural increase (more births than deaths) and 45 per cent is projected net migration. However, future numbers of births and deaths are themselves partly dependent on future migration. Taking this into account, just over two–thirds of the projected total increase in the UK population between 2008 and 2033 is expected to be either directly or indirectly due to future migration”. Click here to read the whole News release: Some more information: “The UK population is projected to increase by 4.3 million by 2018. This increase is equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.7 per cent”. “If past trends continue, the population will continue to grow, reaching 71.6 million by 2033”. “…the UK has an ageing population. The proportion of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 16 per cent in 2008 to 23 per cent by 2033”. “As a result, despite the forthcoming rises in state pension age, old age support ratios will fall. In 2008, there were 3.2 people of working age for every person of state pensionable age. This ratio is projected to fall to 2.8 by 2033, taking into account the future changes to state pension age”. “Trends differ for the four countries of the UK. The populations of England and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by 7 per cent by 2018 and Wales by 5 per cent. The projected increase for Scotland, where fertility and life expectancy levels are assumed to remain lower than in the rest of the UK, is 4 per cent”. ONS Material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk Beginning of October 2009 This is the title of the Press Release for the 2009 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report, entitled “Overcoming barriers: Human mobility and development”. The first two paragraphs show the basic opinion of the UNDP: The press release may be viewed at: End of September 2009 Recently the Optimum Population Trust (OPT) stated that “All environmental problems, and notably those arising from climate change, would be easier to solve with a smaller future population. Population restraint in rich countries and communities would reduce the future number of major carbon emitters (who will also be victims) Restraint in poor countries and communities would reduce the number of minor emitters and likely major victims”. And OPT recommended that climate change negotiators should recognise, amongst other things, “that population restraint is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for the solution of the problems caused by climate change”. Now a somewhat different slant on the significance of human population growth for climate change has been produced by Davis Satterthwaite of the International Institute for Environment and Development -IIED). In his paper he argues that “it is not the growth in (urban or rural) populations that drives the growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but rather, the growth in consumers and in their levels of consumption. A significant proportion of the world's urban (and rural) populations have consumption levels that are so low that they contribute little or nothing to such emissions”. 24th September 2009 Here is the foreword to the report by the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Hilary Benn. The third paragraph contains the reference to human population growth (we have put the relevant bit in bold type). “Along with air and water, soil is one of the building blocks of life. It gives us food, clothing and fuel. It supports our buildings and infrastructure, stores water and carbon, is home to a wide range of biodiversity and sustains some of our most valued landscapes. Yet it is so much a part of everyday life, in our gardens, parks and even window boxes, that there’s a danger of taking it for granted. “I am always struck by the words of President Franklin D Roosevelt over 70 years ago when, promoting the first measures in the world to protect soil, he said “The Nation that destroys its soil destroys itself”. He understood the value of soil and the importance to economies and societies of protecting it. “But our soils face pressures now that Roosevelt could never have envisaged. Increasing demands for food and fuel from a growing global population that is forecast to reach 9 billion by 2050, pressures for more land for new housing and transport infrastructure and, most significantly, climate change" (our bold text). “These new pressures will exacerbate many of the threats that soils already face in providing their range of ecosystem services. Soil erosion due to wind and rainfall already results in the annual loss of around 2.2 million tonnes of topsoil in the UK. This costs British farmers £9m a year in lost production. Climate change has the potential to increase erosion rates through hotter, drier conditions that make soils more susceptible to wind erosion, coupled with intense rainfall incidents that can wash soil away. “Soils are an important store of carbon, with those in the UK containing around 10 billion tonnes of carbon, half of which is found in our peat habitats. Losing this store to the atmosphere would create emissions that are equivalent to more than 50 times the UK’s current annual greenhouse gas emissions. As the climate warms and rainfall patterns change, there is a growing risk that emissions to the atmosphere from soil will increase, in turn causing further climate change as well as reducing the soil’s productive capacity. “Managing the impact of construction and development on soils’ essential functions, like absorbing rainwater, is vital. We need to ensure that the planning system provides the appropriate level of protection for good quality agricultural land. While many sources of soil pollution have been dealt with through environmental regulation, challenges remain if we are to manage more diffuse sources, including from atmospheric deposition and spreading waste materials on land, and deal with our industrial legacy of contaminated land. “The new Soil Strategy for England – Safeguarding our Soils – outlines the Government’s approach to safeguarding our soils for the long term. It provides a clear vision to guide future policy development across a range of areas and sets out the practical steps that we need to take to prevent further degradation of our soils, enhance, restore and ensure their resilience, and improve our understanding of the threats to soil and best practice in responding to them. “This Strategy supports the aims of the EU Thematic Strategy on Soil Protection but clearly demonstrates the value of national action to protect soils which is responsive to local circumstances. That is why I believe the harmonised European approach that is currently proposed in the draft EU Soil Framework Directive is not the right one. “Good quality soils are essential to achieve Defra’s goals of a thriving farming sector and a sustainable, healthy food supply, as well as securing a healthy environment in which we and future generations can prosper. I believe that this Strategy is an important step in increasing the value we place on soil and setting a framework for safeguarding this vital resource now and in the future”. (end of the foreword) Attention is again drawn to population growth in paragraph 23 of the Executive Summary: The DEFRA report “Safeguarding our Soils. A Strategy for England” is © Crown copyright 2009. We would like to draw readers attention to our book: Barker, J.F. (2000). “England in the New Millennium. Are we prepared to save our countryside?”. This includes a detailed description of the then existing agricultural measures to protect and improve the quality of farm land and makes proposals to improve farming practice and countryside protection. 9th September 2009 The Co– Chairmen of the UK parliament Cross Party Group on Balanced Migration comment on the government's plan to build 2,000 council houses across England: 8th September 2009 A Northampton Chronicle and Echo newspaper article says that the Tories used the Freedom of Information Act to gain access to information on the cost of police force translation services for work dealing with foreign nationals. The force had spent a total of £324,758 on translators during 2008 compared with £63,000 in 2003. Temporary deputy chief constable Derek Talbot said “The service offers interpreters who can speak 45 different languages”. He also said that the translation costs had been factored into policing budgets and that the force was committed to getting value for money. “Police have said translators are necessary both for victims and perpetrators of crimes, but shadow immigration minister Damian Green, who submitted the Freedom of Information request, said the statistics showed the strain immigration had put on public services”. 7th September 2009 On the basis of research carried out for the UK parliament Cross Party Group on Balanced Migration by Migration Watch, the group claims that:
The Co-Chairmen of the group commented: Late August early September 2009 The UK Government is bringing in a series of measures designed to ensure that UK workers will have more opportunity to fill vacancies before they are offered to workers from abroad: “...from next year, all jobs must be advertised to British workers in Jobcentre Plus for four weeks – extended from two weeks – before companies can seek to employ individuals from outside Europe”. On worker transfers from overseas, the time period ('qualifying period') for overseas workers who wish to transfer to work at their company's United Kingdom base will be extended. Further there is currently a minimum salary a worker must have to qualify to be able to come to the UK to work as a 'skilled worker'. This minimum salary will be raised. These proposed new measures have received a lot of attention from the Media. 27th August 2009 Main conclusions about international migration trends to and from the UK in the year ending December 2008 compared with the year ending December 2007:
References “Latest migration statistics published”. ONS Material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk 27th August 2009 Main conclusions:
The three Press Releases (corresponding to the three Rx references given above): ONS Material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence (licence to reproduce public sector information, Office of Public Sector information). Source: National Statistics web site: www.statistics.gov.uk Late August 2009 In this article Ann Swain writes about the transfer to the UK by UK organisations, of foreign non-European Union personnel by what is termed 'intra–company transfers'. In the article she says that a growing number of foreign workers are entering the UK by this mechansim when there is in fact “an abundance of home grown talent”, so that “the UK jobs market is effectively being bypassed”. Apsco obtained data by making use of the Freedom of Information Act. It was found that the majority (83%) of the 35,430 non–EU workers coming to work in the UK in 2008 were brought in using the intra–company transfer mechanism. It appears from the article that most of these transfers were from India, although this is not actually stated as a fact in the article. Recently Apsco recommended to the UK Home Office that the existing law should be changed so that in future employers would have to advertise their vacancies in the UK before they transferred any employees from overseas offices. August 2009 The Indian government has decided to import food because of the drought that is affecting nearly half of India's districts. The finance minister said commodities that are in short supply will be imported. Pulses and edible oil are already in short supply but there are sufficient grain stocks to meet current requirements. The Indian government wishes to rein in prices of staple foods, but that may not be easy. Efforts to encourage imports have so far had only limited success because of higher international prices. And in two previous years when India decided to import large quantities of wheat when domestic stocks were falling, this pushed up international prices causing Indian import prices to rise. See also BBC. 21st August We referred to the food situation in India in 2007 in our essay “Population growth and environmental deterioration. Are things finally coming together for mankind's doom?” That essay is accessed from the Analysis section, Comment and Analysis page. We wrote: 10th August 2009 The UK Environment Secretary, Hilary Benn, has warned that we need a 'radical rethink' of the way the UK produces and consumes food. He warned that while currently food supply was secure, population growth and climate change could have an impact. He noted that globally there would be two and a half to three billion more people to feed over the next few decades and over the past few years global and UK food prices have been rising. This and last year's jump in the prices of oil (needed to produce fertilisers) and of food, was a “a wake–up call”. We in turn note that a long time ago (2nd November 2007) we drew attention to the the basic problem of food supply, noting the connections between population growth, climate change, food and oil price increases, and security against unrest in our essay “Population growth and environmental deterioration. Are things finally coming together for mankind's doom?” .That essay is accessed from the Analysis section, Comment and Analysis page. 5th August 2009 So says the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) in its News Release about its new report entitled “Shall we stay or shall we go: re-migration trends among Britain's immigrants”. More than 3 million immigrants to the UK in the last 30 years subsequently left, and this exodus is increasing. Also, short–stay immigrants (those who spend less than four years in the UK) doubled between 1996 and 2007. The Executive Summary however, adds an interesting point about short–and long–stay immigrants: 21st July 2009 The UK House of Commons Home Affairs Committee has issued a report on “bogus colleges”. “In the context of this Report, the term ‘bogus college‘ refers to an illegitimate educational establishment set up primarily to enable non–European Economic Area (EEA) nationals to come to the UK on fraudulent student visas”. The report concludes there are many bogus colleges in the UK that are facilitating the entry into Britain of persons using such visas: “The Minister of State for Borders and Immigration told us that the Home Office issues around 200,000 student visas each year. Witnesses were unable to give an accurate estimate as to how many of these students entered the country via bogus colleges but the Chief Executive of English UK, Tony Millns, said ‘it could be tens of thousands quite easily‘”. The report also states: And: “We are extremely disappointed that the Government has ignored repeated warnings from the education sector about the problem of bogus colleges. While the new sponsorship system under the points based immigration system should help to prevent bogus colleges, we consider that a more complete means of prevention requires the compulsory regulation of private further education colleges and English language schools by the state”. However, the report also states: Read the Reuters News Agency item on this report: Parliamentary material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO on behalf of Parliament. 15th July 2009 The UK parliament Cross-Party Group on Balanced Migration issued a press release where the co-chairmen claimed “The need to increase funding for primary schools is a direct result of mass immigration feeding into our population”. The press release gave some rather startling data including:
13th July 2009 Here is the Migration Watch UK full press release: “Both Conservatives and Labour 'conning' the public on immigration. New research shows neither party will stop UK's population hitting 70 million.As the latest immigration Bill comes to the House of Commons on Tuesday for its final approval, new research published today shows that the immigration policies of neither the Conservative Party nor the Labour Party will stop the UK's population hitting 70 million – up from 61 million today. The official forecast is that, in the absence of major policy changes, we will reach this point in 20 years time with nearly all the increase in England. To avoid the UK population hitting 70 million – nine million more than today – net migration needs to be reduced from 237,000 (the 2007 figure) to 50,000, and held there. This is a 75% reduction. To stabilise our population at 65 million we need a 100% reduction so that immigration is equal to emigration. Under Labour's policies, immigration would fall by 8% – a fall of just 20,000 to 217,000. This is their own claim based on what would have happened if their so – called “tough” Points Based System been in place last year. Under Conservative policies, immigration would fall by 27% – from 237,000 to 172,000. This is despite the fact that – the Immigration Minister has pledged “This Government isn't going to allow the population to go up to 70 million” (The Times, 18th October 2008) – the Conservative Leader saying he wants net migration to be reduced to “the sort of figure it was in the 80s and 90s” (BBC Radio 5 Live, 15th February 2009). Overall net immigration in the 1980s averaged about 17,000 a year. The average for 1990–97 was 45,000. Commenting on the research, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migrationwatch UK, said: ‘The main parties talk tough on immigration, but they are trying to ‘con‘ the British public. According to Government figures, we can expect almost another 10 million people in England in 20 years time of which seven million will be due to immigration – equivalent to seven cities the size of Birmingham. Current Labour policy won‘t begin to address this. The Conservatives are barely better: despite their rhetoric, they have a lightweight policy that sounds tough but won't deliver. ‘Until the main parties decide to be honest about an issue crucial to the future of our society and until they get real about the measures needed, extremist groups will continue to have a ball,‘ he said”. Intellectual copyright remains the property of MigrationWatch UK © 2001 MigrationWatch UK. All rights reserved. The full Briefing Paper – briefing paper number 11.13, may be accessed at Migration Watch UK 7th July 2009 UK. The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) today published a report it had commissioned from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) that found no bias in allocation of social housing to immigrants. The report says that there are “widely-held fears that the allocation process puts white British families at a disadvantage and that migrants are 'cheating' the system. This myth is often at the core of discriminatory behaviour and contributes to tension and violence in many areas”. But the evidence suggests this myth is untrue. Housing allocation policies were analysed and this showed no evidence that social housing allocation favours foreign migrants over UK citizens. However, a small amount of evidence suggested that policies may sometimes have discriminated against ethnic minorities because some members of these minorities had insufficient understanding of their housing rights. Also one must put the provision of housing to immigrants in the social housing sector in the context of total housing provision. If one divides the UK population into UK–born and Foreign–Born, both groups have a similar proportion of persons living in social housing (about one in six people). Further, with migrants to the UK in the last five years, more have bought their own homes (17 per cent) than live in social housing (11 per cent). And the report notes that the Labour Force Survey shows “foreign–born populations who have arrived in the UK during the last five years are overwhelmingly housed in the private rental sector, and not in social housing“. EHRC Press Release 2nd July 2009 Migration Watch UK has looked at the number of Pakistani born workers in Britain and the remittances sent home by these workers. While since 2001, the number of registered workers has risen by 67%, workers remittances are now six times higher than they were in 2001. This suggested to Migration Watch that even if remittances per head had doubled during this time period, this could not produce anything like the massive rise in remittances that has actually taken place. Migration Watch calculates that in addition to the 180,000 Pakistani workers in the official Labour Force Survey, there must be around 170,000 other Pakistani workers. “The only plausible explanation for such a rapid increase in remittances from Pakistan is a sharp rise in the number of illegal immigrants sending money home”. As a check on the basic method used in this work, Migration Watch examined remittances by Philipino workers to the Philippines. Here while remittances in 2008 to the Philippines from the UK were nearly six times those in 2001 the number of Filipino born workers in the work force trebled over the same period. Migration Watch UK Press Release 30th June 2009 A new Press Article by Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migration Watch UK, challenges the official view on provision of housing for immigrants. The article points out that waiting lists for social housing have grown so fast in six years that the supply of this housing has fallen far behind the demand. One reason, the paper says, is the number of asylum seekers that have been given the right to remain in Britain and then offered social housing. The article says that politicians have frequently assured us asylum seekers do not get social housing and this is to a certain extent true since, while their cases are being decided, they are given private rented accomodation, although this is at public expense. But if they are given permission to stay, they can opt to go on housing lists. Since more asylum seekers have been given permission to stay in Britain than the government has built social housing for, the waiting lists have grown longer. Now with these lists, allocation is based on 'need'. But need is strongly influenced by family size. And once a migrant or asylum seeker has been granted residence, he can bring in his whole family, and that moves him up the priority list. Now a 2006 study in one part of the east end of London found that 'need' had been so interpreted that it favoured workers from Bangladesh and these were bringing over their families, resulting in stronger bonding between members of the Bangladeshi community. But young British workers were being pushed out to Essex, while their parents stayed behind in their council houses, resulting in a weakening of “the traditional working–class family structure” of the British workers. The article may be accessed at: 24th and 28th June 2009 28th June. UK. New jobs going to British-born and foreign-born workers in recent years. With the total working population over the age of 16, 85% of new jobs in the private sector have gone to non-UK born workers; in the public sector, 28% went to non-UK born workers. 24th June. UK. New figures from the Regional Trends of the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show there will be four million more households in Great Britain by the year 2021. Of these over one million will be in London and the South East of England. The Cross-Party group estimates that immigration will account for almost 40% of all new household formation in England. Cross-Party Group for Balanced Migration June 2009 A new paper from Population Action International examines the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and concludes that the effect of population changes on emissions in that report was probably under-estimated. The reason is, the paper claims, that while the SRES report showed the effect of population size changes on emissions, it did not account for other demographic trends such as urbanization, age structure, and household composition; also in the report's population projections, the importance of fertility decline may have been over-emphasised. May 2009 The Greater London Authority commissioned some staff from the London School of Economics to carry out a study of the effect of granting an amnesty to illegal immigrants (referred to by them as 'irregular' migrants). The number of such migrants in the UK and in London is not known, but the authors produce a central estimate of the number of irregular residents (ie, migrants and their children) in the UK at the end of 2007 – 618,000, with a range of 417,000 – 863,000. As far as London is concerned, they give three estimates for the end of 2007, a 'low', a 'central' and an 'upper' (thousands): 281, 442 and 630 respectively – so there is very considerable uncertainty! The amnesty would only apply to irregular immigrants who had been in the UK for at least five years. This was estimated to be 62 per cent of all irregular immigrants. The assumption behind this estimate was that the likelihood of irregular migrants remaining was similar to the likelihood of regular migrants from the same countries remaining. The report concludes that regularisation could be expected to increase national output because it would enable a greater proportion of irregular residents to work and to make better use of their human capital. Regularisation could add around £3 billion per annum (or 0.2 per cent) to GDP in the long term. This assumes that supportive policies were put in place, and that the employment rates of irregulars could be improved by six percentage points and their earnings improved by 25 per cent. Regularisation would incur costs: For the UK as a whole, public service costs might increase by £410 per annum but “potentially available welfare costs” might over time raise this to £1 billion, and there would be a one–off cost of the regularisation scheme and administration of £300 million. On the other hand, regularisation might increase tax revenue by £846 million per annum. With London there might be £240 million for public service costs; £713 million when including welfare costs plus £210 million one off costs, compared with around £596 million per annum additional tax revenue. The authors consider that in terms of public services, costs would be relatively low, primarily because for most services, access “does not depend on regularity per se, but on whether or not migrants are ‘subject to immigration control’”. There has been much discussion across the world about whether or not granting amnesties encourages further irregular migration. The authors of this report conclude this in unlikely to happen with the amnesty here proposed. The reason they give is that the position in the UK is different from that of countries where most of the evidence suggesting granting an amnesty encourages further irregular immigration has come from. The difference is that in those countries much of the illegal immigration has come across land borders from nearby countries, whereas in the UK most irregular migrants come from much further afield which, they think, makes large–scale irregular migration much less likely. They add and it "could only occur if border controls were ineffective". However, on this last point, we point out that there is evidence that our border controls have not been very effective. Migration Watch released a Press Release on this report 16th June, as follows: “Migrationwatch comment on GLA report on illegal immigration issued today. 'These are very expensive proposals which would only make a bad situation worse. On the report's own figures they would cost £300m in bureaucracy and £3m a week in benefits (our figure is £10m a week. See also Briefing Paper 11.11 – The True Cost of an Amnesty for Illegal Immigrants). It would also cost £6bn to provide the extra social housing needed. Worse still, it would encourage still further illegal immigration as other countries have found. Italy has granted five amnesties in the last twenty years and Spain six; on virtually every occasion there were more applications each time. The report has no answer to this. it just remarks that it would only happen if border controls were ineffective. But that is exactly the position we still face. We issue two million visas a year and there will be no full checks on departure until 2014, obviously, those granted an amnesty would be replaced at the drop of a hat. The public have the common sense to see this. Our opinion poll showed seventy per cent opposed to an amnesty. The recent European elections must surely be a lesson to the political class that they can no longer ride roughshod over public opinion with absurd, expensive and self–defeating proposals such as these. It seems that Boris Johnson is trying to buy the immigrant vote with taxpayer's money. They will know how to respond to this'.” Intellectual copyright remains the property of MigrationWatch UK © 2001 MigrationWatch UK. All rights reserved. If over time, this particular press release does not immediately appear at this link, simply go to “Press Releases” on the left side of the page to access this and other press releases. May 2009 “The impacts of climate change are already causing migration and displacement. Although the exact number of people that will be on the move by mid–century is uncertain, the scope and scale could vastly exceed anything that has occurred before. People in the least developed countries and island states will be affected first and worst. The consequences for almost all aspects of development and human security could be devastating. There may also be substantial implications for political stability”. So says a new report written by Koko Warner, the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security; Charles Ehrhart, CARE International; and Alex de Sherbinin, Susana Adamo, and Tricia Chai–Onn, Center for International Earth Science Information Network at the Earth Institute of Columbia University. Mixed sources20th May 2009 A new YouGov poll commissioned by the organisation Migration Watch for the Parliamentary Cross Party Group on Balanced Migration showed considerable concern by the British public about the level of immigration. The Poll results may be accessed at YouGov Due to a Gaia Watch holiday, this news item only posted to the web 8th June. Mid May 2009 This new release of data brings the situation up as far as September 2008. We give here some key facts. Total net international migration in recent times was highest for the year ending December 2007, and was lowest for the year ending September 2008. The table below gives data for these two periods.
The data can be accessed at the Office of National Statistics Web site. Click on the link below. This brings up a list of items. Click on any item to access it. The key item is “IPS estimates of long–term international migration year ending September 2008”. Material reproduced under the terms of the Click–Use Licence. Source: National Statistics website: www.statistics.gov.uk Late April – early May 2009 The Mayor of London has proposed an amnesty for illegal immigrants. The question then arises, would this really benefit the UK? Two organisations have now produced reports that have a bearing on this matter. The first, by Migration Watch, argues against granting an amnesty, concluding this would create a massive financial burden. The second from the Institute for Public Policy Research, while agreeing that an amnesty is not the right way to go about dealing with illegal immigrants, argues that it would be beneficial to incorporate illegal immigrants more fully into the economy. Migration Watch has carried out research to find the hidden costs to the taxpayer of granting an amnesty to illegal immigrants. The research examined the 'total lifetime cost', that is the cost during the working life and also the retirement period. The Migration Watch research took as exemplar a man who was 25 years old, was married and had two children, lived in private rented accommodation, worked for a minimum wage, and, not having a pension, would on retirement receive Pension Credit, and it was assumed the man would live for 15 years in retirement. The main result of the research was the conclusion: the amnesty "would cost taxpayers, on average, an extra £1 million over the lifetime of each immigrant". Migration Watch also points out that all this would be starting at a time when the Nation's finances are in serious difficulty, adding a totally unnecessary further burden on the nation's balance sheet. And Sir Andrew Green, chairman of Migration Watch added the often expressed view that granting the amnesty would in effect reward illegal behaviour and encourage even more illegal immigration to the UK, just as it has, in his view, already done so in Italy and Spain. Migration Watch. Press Release Now the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) does not like the term 'illegal immigrants'. The report argues that the term is a 'value-laden' term. It stresses the fact that there are different categories of illegal immigrant, some more illegal than others. It substitutes the term 'irregular immigrants'. We do not see the fact that illegal immigrants come so to speak in different colours, can ever be a reason for abandoning the term 'illegal immigrants'. They are illegal. They should not be here. 'Illegal' is simply the correct term, legally, morally and in common sense terms. The report details the different categories of what we will continue to call illegal immigrants in what follows:
The IPPR states what has become a common claim about illegal immigrants – and we will not here challenge the claim – namely, that they do jobs the native people will not do, so they consequently benefit the economy. But, the IPPR argues, if these illegal immigrants were, unlike now, working in the “legal and regular economy”, they would boost the economy to the tune of £1 billion in taxes per year. The IPPR does not think that granting an overall amnesty is the right way to proceed to tackle the problem of illegal migration. Rather, it has a set of alternative proposals. Institute for Public Policy research 15th April 2009 Research workers at the University of Salford conclude that while 760,935 migrant workers are registered in the UK, there are at least another 253,645 not officially recognised. One reason that such workers are not recognised is that one in ten migrant workers work for 'cash in hand' and so would not be registered. But they also conclude that migrant workers are not taking jobs from British workers because they are filling job vacancies that would not be taken up by British people. While the research focused just on one town (Bolton), the researchers believe that the trends they found are replicated nationwide. 15th April 2009 The Office of National Statistics has now released the 2009 edition of the journal Social Trends. Here is a summary from the webpage where one may download a press release and the full report. “Households, families and children are the underlying theme of this year's Social Trends. Many aspects of society vary according to make up of the household and family type, including economic activity, spending patterns, and attitudes towards the environment. Attitudes to marriage, divorce and childbearing have changed over time and contributed to an increasing proportion of cohabiting couples, lone parent families and people living alone. Despite these changes, the traditional family structure of a married mother and father with a child or children, remains the most common family type. “As the population grows, the proportion of people aged under 16 has dropped below those over state pension age. Life expectancy at birth in the UK has risen, younger people spend more time in formal education and the labour force has grown as the population has increased. However, in 2006/07 local authorities spent more than double the amount on personal social services, such as home help and foster care, than they did a decade ago. “Crime, although perceived to be increasing, has actually fallen. There has been a rise in home ownership and although housing accounts for a significant proportion of household expenditure, there were large increases in spending on communication and by UK tourists travelling abroad. “The environment and particularly climate change was still a concern for many people, although access to a car remained on the increase. There have been notable increases over the last decade in ownership of items such as mobile phones and home computers. Despite these increases, traditional leisure activities, such as watching TV and spending time with family and friends, remain popular”. Access this latest edition of the journal Socal Trends here: Material reproduced under the terms of the Click-Use Licence. Source: National Statistics website: www.statistics.gov.uk March 2009 A report from the Department for Communities and Local Government gives an assessment of East European migration to and from the UK, describes how the government is trying to control immigration and continues “... to build cohesive communities that are resilient and can manage change”, and makes recommendations for the future management of this migration. The report assesses the present situation in a section headed 'Migration – the national picture' “Communities and Local Government (CLG) has commissioned the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) to examine the impact of the economic downturn on migration. We expect this research to be published in April but their preliminary findings suggest that net migration flows to the UK will fall as a result of the economic downturn. While the extent of the fall depends in part on how other economies perform in relation to the UK, the research suggests that net migration is likely to fall towards the 2006–based low variant projection made by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). “Of those coming to the UK, the analysis we have commissioned suggests that the number of migrants from the Accession 8 countries (A8) is the most likely to decline further owing to decreasing wage differentials and a less attractive exchange rate. Evidence from the Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) already shows a decrease in the number of A8 migrants coming to the UK; the number of applications peaked in quarter 4 of 2006 at 63,000 and fell to 27,000 in quarter 4 of 2008. “It is hard to be conclusive about the extent to which migration will decline during the downturn and then whether it will pick up again as the economy recovers. Many factors influence migrants’ decisions to come to the UK. While we are already seeing some signs of a decline in inflows of migrants from Eastern Europe, it is unlikely that there will be a complete cessation of migration to the UK during the downturn. Migrants will continue to come for family reunion and humanitarian protection as well as to study, learn English and experience life in the UK. “We must also remember that while inflows to the UK are likely to decrease during the downturn, this does not mean that migrants already living and working in the UK are likely to leave. The research we have commissioned suggests that stocks of migrants coming from the A8 countries living in the UK may increase over time but potentially at a slower rate than previously anticipated. This slowing is in part in response to the current slowdown in the UK, and to other EU countries relaxing their restrictions on the A8. Moreover, some A8 migrants only intended to stay a short time in the UK and have not made as many bonds in society as other migrant groups. However, many A8 migrants will choose to stay in the UK, particularly if they work in sectors that are relatively resilient to the downturn (such as agriculture and food processing), if they have dependants at school in the UK, or have established family ties. Migrants from the wider world are unlikely to leave the UK in large numbers during the downturn”. The report may be accessed at Communities and Local Government Material reproduced under the terms of the Click-Use Licence. 26th March 2009 An article by Amy Ellis of the ONS Centre for Demography, has been published in the journal Population Trends.
Trends at Government Office Region (GOR) are also given in this paper. “... each GOR and country of the UK has seen an estimated increase of non-UK born residents of at least 14 per cent over the four year period. The percentage increase in London, the South East and the North East has remained small (under 20 per cent). London and the South East already had relatively high levels of non-UK born residents in 2004. The estimated number of non-UK born residents in London increased from 2,168,000 in 2004 to 2,474,000 in 2007; and the number in the South East increased from 667,000 to 786,000”. “The largest percentage increases in the UK occurred in the East of England (34 per cent), North West (32 per cent), and the East Midlands (32 per cent).” Access the ONS article at ONS Material reproduced under the terms of the Click-Use Licence. 21st March 2009 “Collapsing credit has plunged the world economy into the deepest recession in more than 70 years...... millions of lost jobs and destroyed savings, has entered the political realm, causing some governments to collapse and threatening others. The risk of political instability is leading to a wave of trade protectionism, which is rippling across the globe....The political risks from the economic crisis are increasingly dire. Hungary’s prime minister, warns that an economic collapse in eastern Europe could tear apart the European Union and create a new Iron Curtain. Further east, the slowdown in China’s economy and the lack of political freedom is creating fertile ground for social turmoil........Job losses are at the heart of the growing political crisis. The International Labour Organisation expects global unemployment to rise by around 30m this year compared with 2007, and by as much as 50m if the world economy turns desperately downward.....” The Unit has created a new social unrest index that identifies where the risks are greatest. It “defines social and political unrest or upheaval as those events or developments that pose a serious extra-parliamentary or extra-institutional threat to governments or the existing political order. The events will almost invariably be accompanied by some violence as well as public disorder.....The overall index on a scale of 0 (no vulnerability) to 10 (highest vulnerability). There are two component indices: an index of underlying vulnerability and an economic distress index. The overall index is a simple average (on a 1-10 scale) of the two component indexes”. Zimbabwe comes top of the list (score of 8.8), Norway comes bottom (1.2). The UK (4.6) comes below France (5.3) but above The Netherlands (4) and Germany (3.8). The Report may be accessed from: 19th and 20th March 2009 A new Migration Policy Institute (MPI) report concludes that the overall impact of the recession on the size of the UK’s immigrant population is likely to be small in the long term. Annual immigration flows are small and even a large reduction in these flows would only reduce the total immigrant population by a very small amount. Also the factors driving immigration will remain strong, so flows are likely to pick up again with economic recovery. Immigrants, especially those outside the OECD are likely to be amongst the worst affected by the recession. At the same time, historic perspective suggests that as native workers feel increasingly insecure, there is a risk of a backlash against immigrants. The report may be accessed at: Some newspaper comments: 16th March 2009 A report from the organisation Centre for Cities by Catherine Glossop & Faiza Shaheen, examines the differential labour market effects of A8 country migration on two contrasting city economies – Bristol and Hull (the A8 countries are the East European countries that joined the European Union in 2004). The research was conducted during October 2008 and January 2009 – a time when both labour markets underwent a significant contraction, as a result of the global downturn. The report notes that there is a public perception that migrants are taking jobs that would otherwise be given to local residents. But the study concludes that immigration from the A8 countries is not a real barrier keeping the long term unemployed out of the labour market. In Bristol, this is some evidence of “an increase in the number of local people applying for positions traditionally taken up by migrant groups. This indicates that the recently unemployed are starting to widen their labour market search”. There has been no out–migration of immigrants from either Bristol or Hull as a result of the recession. In Hull, migrants, through recruitment agencies, are predominantly employed in factories and that has prevented direct competition with local people for jobs. In Bristol, there is greater evidence that migrants are settling down, that they have higher level skills, and that they are employed in a wider range of sectors than in Hull. These factors could indicate greater competition for jobs with local people for fewer jobs compared with the situation in Hull, as the recession gets worse. The report may be accessed at: Different newspapers emphasise different aspects of the report. 15th March 2009 A poll for the Financial Times showed that roughly three–quarters of adult British people think that immigrants who do not have a job should be asked to leave the country. In response, the immigration minister Phil Woolas admitted that the public don't think the government is in control of immigration. 12th March 2009 Key points from the summary release from Communities and Local Government, which refer to what is termed the 'Principal Projection' are:
The Press Release may be accessed at: We now refer briefly to the full report. As already mentioned, the above conclusions relate to what is termed the 'Principal Projection'. But the report also examines variant population projections that are based on different assumptions about fertility, life expectancy and migration, and looks at how these variant population projections affect household projections. It was found that changing assumptions about migration in these variant projections had a greater effect on the growth of the number of households than changing assumptions about fertility and life expectancy. The 'high migration' variant projection increases the number of households by 33,000 per year between 2006 and 2031, while the 'low migration' variant decreases the number of households by almost 31,000 per year between 2006 and 2031 relative to the principal projection. The results of the various projections for the number of households in 2031 are as follows:
We see then that there is a very large spread of numbers between the different projections. We also note that the report states: Now the Telegraph Newspaper in its item on the report, comments about the conclusion that with the Principal Projection, population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three–quarters of the increase in households between 2006 and 2031. It says that this leaves immigration accounting for extra 99,000 households a year between now and 2031. And the headline of the Telegraph article is “Immigrants will add up to 'one household every six minutes for 25 years'”. We would like to add one comment of our own, and that concerns the natural increase component of population growth and the changing ethnic composition of the UK population and households. Fertility rate is one causal factor of natural increase. Now fertility rate varies greatly between ethnic groups. Thus the fertility of the census category White: British – still by far the largest ethnic category in the UK – is way below replacement level, as it is also in some other groups, especially the Chinese. In contrast, the fertility rate of some ethnic groups is way above replacement level, this being most noticeably the case with the Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups (see section 6c of the UK section of our Population Trends page). It is therefore to be expected that there will be significant changes in household numbers in terms of ethnicity. The full report may be accessed at: And the Telegraph article may be accessed at: 11th and 12th March 2009 The United Nations (UN) Fifth World Water Forum takes place 15th–20th March. And the UN issued a Press Release to launch a new World Water Development Report on the 12th of March. But France 24 International News issued a News Brief on the report entitled “Population growth, climate change sparking water crisis” the previous day (11th). The following brief account summarises this earlier press release which seems to us the more informative of the two releases, but we also then give a note on, and a link to, the UN Press Release. The continued growth of the human population (globally 80 million more people per year) is driving an “explosive” demand for water, especially in poor country cities where water resources are anyway often “meagre”. Demand for water from rivers, lakes and aquifers is growing yearly at a rate equivalent to the annual water demand of Egypt today, and has trebled in the past 50 years through population growth and the water demands of water–intensive food crops such as rice, cotton, dairy and meat products. Water reserves built up in aquifers over hundreds of thousand of years are not being replenished. The situation is being made worse by pollution, “unbridled” irrigation, and pipe leakage. Resultant environmental degradation and “excessive” extraction costs are putting a great financial burden on countries especially in the Middle East and North Africa, which are the most “water–stressed” world regions. The annual investment needed to build up and then maintain water supply systems and the connected sanitation and irrigation requirements is between 92.4 and 148 billion dollars. And now climate change, with shifting weather systems is, and will continue, to make things worse. Increasing water shortages will “pose a mounting SECURITY CHALLENGE”, “driving regional rivalry” especially in already “unstable areas”. Further, the water crisis is part of a nexus that includes the crises of climate change, energy supplies, food supplies and “troubled financial markets”. All this means that the outlook is mixed for the achieving of the UN Millennium Development Goals. As regards the water crisis itself, water conservation and reuse of water are “watchwords” for the future. The News Brief may be accessed at: The UN release covers the same ground as the News Brief just summarised, but also lays some stress on a point not mentioned in that brief. It notes that one of the report's authors, Richard Connor, said “the production of biofuels had also increased sharply in recent years, with significant impact on water demand. The report noted that, despite their potential to help reduce dependence on fossil energy, and given the technology currently available, biofuels were likely to place a disproportionate amount of pressure on biodiversity and the environment”. Finally, we draw attention to our essay “Population growth and environmental deterioration. Are things finally coming together - for mankind's doom?” written quite a long time ago now (November 2007), which draws together the various factors causing the present global environmental crisis, and provides the context for the water crisis. This essay can be accessed either from our Home page (global section) or from the Analysis section of our Comment and Analysis page. 11th March 2009 The United Nations is publishing the 2008 revision of its World Population Prospects. The Press Release dated 11th March gives the key findings listed under 26 points. We just mention here a few cardinal features, and the peculiar significance of the revision figures for the United Kingdom. All what follows is based on what is termed by the UN the 'medium variant' population projection. In July 2009 the world population will reach 6.8 billion, and, assuming that fertility rates continue to decline, the world population is expected to reach 9.1 billion in 2050. At that time it will be increasing by roughly 33 million persons each year. It is the less developed countries where most future population growth will take place. And amongst these countries, the population of the 49 least developed countries is projected to double by 2050. Population growth during 2010–2050 is concentrated in what are currently the most populous countries, and the top five in terms of the size of their future contribution to global population growth are (in descending order of contribution): India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the USA (we comment here that the top four are thus in sub–Saharan Africa; further, China, by far the country with the largest present day population, only comes eighth on the list, no doubt because of its implementation of the one child policy). While population growth is projected to continue in most countries between 2010 and 2050, the populations of 45 countries or areas are expected to decrease. Most of these countries are in Europe, but also included are Cuba, Japan and the Republic of Korea. 'Population ageing' is a world wide phenomenon. By this term the UN means the production of populations where the proportion of older persons increases and at the same time the proportion of younger persons decreases. While population ageing is currently most advanced in developed countries, the populations of a majority of developing countries “are poised to enter a period of rapid population ageing”. But in countries where fertility remains high, the populations will remain relatively young. Most developed countries have had below replacement level fertility for two or three decades, however, in general, in more developed countries, fertility is expected to rise slightly before 2050. In contrast, the fertility in the least developed countries is projected to fall considerably. Life expectancy is low in the least developed countries although it is projected to increase from 56 to 69 years by 2050. But this assumes successfully reducing HIV spread and combating other infectious diseases (HIV 'prevalence' reached a peak over the past decade and a growing number of countries are maintaining low prevalence levels. But prevalence remains high in some countries – Southern Africa is the region with the highest HIV prevalence). Most developing countries are unlikely to see a massive reduction of under–five mortality. In 2005–2010 net migration in nine countries or areas is more than twice the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. And in a further 11 countries, net migration largely counterbalances natural increase. Finally, and of particular interest for the UK, in terms of average annual numbers, the major net receivers of international migrants, 2010–2050 are, in descending net immigration numbers, the USA, Canada, the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, Australia and France. For the UK the projected average annual net immigration is 174,000. The Press Release may be accessed at: The UK Telegraph newspaper reported on the revised UN population estimates. It wrote that if the UN is right, the UK will become the country with the largest population in the European Union (EU) in 2050, with a population even larger than that of Germany. The paper states the UK is already the most crowded country in the EU, the fourth most crowded country in the world. We comment that we think all this has very serious adverse consequences in terms of carrying capacity (see our essay “How Many people can the earth support? Part 2. Ecological footprints”, accessed from the Analysis section of our Comment and Analysis page), and probably too in terms of social cohesion. 10th March 2009 Research presented today at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen shows that the upper range of sea level rise by 2100 could be in the range of about one meter, or possibly more. In the lower end of the spectrum it looks increasingly unlikely that sea level rise will be much less than 50 cm by 2100. This means that if emissions of greenhouse gases is not reduced quickly and substantially, even the best case scenario will hit low lying coastal areas housing one in ten humans on the planet hard. The impacts of sea level rise – even in the lower ranges of the current predictions – looks to be severe. Approximately ten percent of the worlds population – 600 million people – live in low lying areas in danger of being flooded. A previously released study shows that even a modest sea level rise of 50 centimeters will result in a major increase in the number of coastal flooding events. Earlier research showed another worrying consequence of current climate change – oceans are becoming more acidic: 9th of March 2009 Using the Freedom of Information Act, the Association of Professional Staffing Companies (APSC0) found that whereas there had been 12,726 work permits issued to foreign IT workers at the peak of the dot com boom in 2000 when the UK had a massive shortage of IT skilled persons, 35,430 were issued in 2008. APSCo concluded that the influx of foreign IT workers has barely been influenced by the economic downturn and a 'tougher' new points based immigration system. The chief executive of APSCo commented that it seemed to be crazy to still be bringing in three times the number of IT workers to the UK that came in during the dot com boom when thousands of IT workers have already lost their jobs. 9th of March 2009 The Telegraph has an article 9th March stating that a study by the London School of Economics (LSE) estimated the number of illegal migrants in Britain is 725,000; and the article's title states this number is 80 per cent more than official estimates. We therefore tried to find the actual LSE report and for this purpose e-mailed the LSE. Back came the reply giving the link to the report. To our surpise, the report is dated 16th February 2009, quite a long time ago. Note too that the report considers UK, not Great Britain (the UK without Northern Ireland). The report is an interim report commissioned by the Greater London Authority (GLA), which was considering the possibility of giving an amnesty to illegal immigrants (as reported in the BBC television Panorama programme 9th March). The report, by I. Gordon, K. Scanlon, T. Travers and C. Whitehead, uses the euphemistic name 'irregular population' for the illegal population. It refers to a 2005 estimate of this population in a study by Woodbridge (2005), for and published by, the UK Home Office and the Office of National Statistics – hence an official estimate: 430,000 on Census day 2001. In addition there were 175,000 persons (“quasi–legal immigrants”) “whose right to remain at that point depended on future determination of their asylum status”. The LSE report notes that the method used in this Home Office study to make the estimate of the size of the irregular population meant that the estimate did not include UK–born children of irregular migrants. Now the size of the irregular population would have increased by 2007. And the LSE report provides three estimates of the irregular population at the end of 2007 (in thousands), estimates that do include UK-born children : The Summary of the LSE report may be downloaded at LSE. And chaper two of the report which contains further details may be downloaded at: LSE. This chapter makes the very important statement “As a result of the weak statistical base for assessing irregular migrants, compounded by the changes of status that many migrants face from time to time, it is impossible to produce a wholly robust and agreed total for irregular migrants in the UK or London. The best that can be done is to reveal all the existing official sources that tell part of the story and then apply consistent logic to efforts to infer numbers that do not exist. In particular, it is vital that methods are explained so that others can understand them and provide a critique. There is no right or wrong answer, simply gradations of better or worse”. 4th and 5th March 2009 In recent times there have been two Press Releases from the Office of National Statistics that have alarmed the government and caused it to publicly protest about their publication. The first, dated the 11th of February, was entitled “UK born and non-UK born employment”. This gave employment figures for UK nationals and non–UK nationals, as well as UK born and non–UK born persons. With regard to the latter, the Press Release stated that in the 12 months to October–December 2008 employment of UK born workers fell, while employment of non–UK workers rose. We reported on this News release in our News item of 11th and 12th February; and we discussed issues involved in the Comment section of our Comment and Analysis page. The second, dated the 24th of February was entitled “Latest migration statistics released”. This gave information about the number of persons born overseas that were resident in the UK in the year to June 2008. It also gave information on the number of applications for a National Insurance Number and the number of applications for the Workers Registration Scheme. And we reported on this News Release in our News item dated 24th and 25th February. In the discussion of these Press Releases by the media, the view has been expressed that the government has been interfering with the publishing of information by independent statisticians; more particularly trying to influence the publication of statistics by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) so as to ensure Press Releases favour government interpretations of events. Now, this controversy over alleged government interference has surfaced again in the media. We give below links to new news items, and for present purposes number these 1 to 4. A Liberal party spokesman pointed out that ministers cannot make such attacks simply because they don't like the figures or the timing of their publication (item 1). And a senior Conservative MP called for the sacking of Mr. Woolas, as it is not right for ministers to undermine the independence of the ONS (item 4). We think that maintaining the independence of the UK Statistics Authority is vital, and we do think the government has been trying to push that authority to depart from an independent approach and favour the government's take on events. So we think it is important that people should read the 12th of February letter of Sir Michael Scholar to the Times Newspaper in which he defended the ONS against the criticism about the 11th February News Release. We give below a link to a page from where this letter may be accessed. In this letter Sir Michael said that the UKSA would assess the claim of 'misleading' by its own Code of Practice. He went on: “I reject, however, the suggestions of naivety and political motivation. The statistics about foreign workers were included, as they regularly are, within the data from the Labour Force Survey released in the usual way on Wednesday, the same day as the news release. The National Statistician exercised her professional judgement in deciding to bring forward by two weeks the ONS regular analysis of these country of birth and nationality figures, both because there has been misinterpretation of these figures in the recent past and because she judged that it was in the public interest to publish neutral and objective statistics on this subject as soon as possible. Media reports: 1). 4th March. Minister 'appalled' by stats body: The full letter from Sir Michael Scholar to The Times newspaper dated 12 February 2009 may be accessed at the following link: A puzzle. The Mail article of the 5th (item 4) writes of a warning by Sir Michael Scholar that the ONS was being 'pilloried' for publishing objective information, and it appeared that that warning was made the previous day. So we examined the UKSA web site in the hope of finding some statement by Sir Michael dated the 4th of March on this subject. We were unable to find any such statement. The last item of correspondence from Sir Michael referred to on the UKSA web site was his letter of the 12th of February. Consequently we telephoned UKSA and eventually we were phoned back and told that the statement the Mail was referring to must be the letter of the 12th, as they could find no later correspondence on this subject by Sir Michael. So we remain puzzled. 26th February 2009 This report from the Institute for Public Policy Research concludes that migration has little effect on UK wages. For example, they say that increasing the migrant share of the working age population by one percentage point, would only reduce wages by about 0.3 per cent. And the influx of workers from the A8 (east European) countries that joined the European Union in 2004 has had little effect on UK wages. Note. We recently had a news item that contained a reference to an IPPR news release. This news item of ours, dated January 2009, may be found by scrolling down to immediately below our news item for 30th January on social unrest. We wrote in this news item dated January 2009: We never did receive a reply to our request. So although we would have liked to reproduce the conclusions section of this new IPPR report, it seemed to us a waste of time to make a request to do that. 24th and 25th February 2009 New migration statistics were released by the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) on 24th February, and the media has subsequently drawn attention to these statistics. Two of the issues under scrutiny are first, the influx of people from Eastern Europe to work, and second, the size of the non–UK born population in the UK. A basic source of information here is the 24th February ONS News Release “Latest migration statistics released”. (link below). On the issue of the influx of people from Eastern Europe to work, the News Release gives data for people from the 'A8' countries (those east European countries that joined the EU in 2004, the most populous country being Poland). Initial Applications to the Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) fell in both 2007 and 2008:
Figures for National Insurance Number applications from foreign nationals also showed a fall, from between the 12 months to September 2007 and the 12 months to September 2008, both for the group of all foreign nationals, and for A8 nationals. On the issue of the non–UK born population in the UK, the same Press Release states: http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/correspondence/index.html On the issue of East European workers the Home Office gave further details and the BBC had an item “East European worker influx slows”. The Guardian Newspaper had an article “East Europeans seeking work in UK down 47%”. And as regards non-UK born persons, the Daily Mail Newspaper had an article entitled “One in nine people living in Britain now born overseas as 300,000 more foreigners settle in the UK”. Links: Crown Copyright material reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. 24th February 2009 It is suggested that an official estimate of the extent of polygamy in the UK is an underestimate. It is claimed that polygamists have been able to get financial support for more than one wife and even bigger council houses to support large family size. And it is asserted that “officialdom” is ignoring bigamy/polygamy; all this against the background that bigamy/polygamy is illegal and has been for a very long time. This article also refers to a recent intervention into the debate by Baroness Warsi, who argued that politicians have not tackled this problem because of “cultural sensitivity”. The second link below is to a BBC article that covers what Baroness Warsi and others said about this issue. 11th and 12th February 2009 Here is the main text from the News release: “Employment of all workers, both UK and non–UK born, fell by 59,000 in the 12 months to October–December 2008, a 0.2 per cent reduction on the October–December 2007 estimate. In the 12 months to October–December 2008, employment of UK born workers fell by 278,000 to 25.6 million. In the same period, employment of non–UK born workers rose by 214,000 to 3.8 million. Analysis by nationality shows a fall in employment of UK nationals by 234,000 to 27.0 million; employment of non–UK nationals rose by 175,000 to 2.4 million”. Crown Copyright material reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. The full News Release, which also contains illustrative graphs, explanatory background notes and tabulated raw data, may be accessed by clicking on this link: This News Release provoked interest in the media, and here are a few links to items. We will also discuss the issues raised by the media in the Comments section of our Comment and Analysis page. “Increase in foreign born workers”. BBC. 30th January 2009 Strikes in France and the UK now at the end of January, are signs of severe discontent over the effects of the global recession. The more general protest, in France, is caused by the perception that the French government, in responding to the recession, is supporting the banks, but not doing enough to protect workers from the effects of the recession. In the UK, protests are more closely focused on the view that foreign workers are being given jobs that British people could do, when British workers are available to do the jobs; they take place against the background of the Prime Minister's assurances that he wants to ensure jobs for British workers. The French strike started on the 29th when more than a million public and private sector workers (unions said more than two million) came out on strike. The cause was the conviction that the Government had done too much to "bail out fat cats and banks", not enough to protect workers jobs and help workers in other ways to cope with the effects of the recession. Unofficial strikes in the UK started on the 28th at an oil refinery in Lincolnshire, where 300 staff walked out, angry that workers from outside the UK had been taken on to do jobs when local people were out of work and a variety of the jobs, such as welding, could be done by UK workers. The BBC's correspondent Martin Shankleman concluded that “the dispute reflects union alarm” that work on some key projects “has been subcontracted to foreign workers”, UK workers “being denied the right to carry out the work”. The European Union information web site EurActiv sees the French strike as symptomatic of a likely spread of social unrest across Europe, even to the possible extent of a collapse of the 'European social model'. We have requested permission to reproduce the whole EurActiv article; if this is granted we will put the article here. We are grateful that permission has now been granted and here is the article: Social unrest grips Europe as global recession bites.Published: Thursday 29 January 2009 As the global recession continues to ravage industry and employment throughout Europe, the likelihood of social unrest across the continent is increasing, with France today (29 January) experiencing its first mass strike for months.
The first major test faced by a 'big' EU country in 2009 comes as France is brought to a standstill by a general strike against President Nicolas Sarkozy's proposed economic reforms. Eight of the country's leading trade unions will participate, spurred on by high levels of support among French voters: almost 70% are sympathetic towards the protests, according to a CSA poll. Ronald Janssen, an economist at the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), told EurActiv that social unrest across Europe will “intensify” and is likely to mushroom into an “explosion” as the economic crisis escalates, because “not only will job losses continue, increasing unemployment, but a lot of social advantages will be attacked by employers saying 'if you want to keep your job, you will have to accept a cut in wages or benefits'”. As Iceland goes, so goes Europe ?Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde this week became the first European leader to lose his job as a direct result of the economic crisis. The collapse of Haarde's government was precipitated by weeks of angry protests in Reykjavik, including the burning of effigies of the prime minister outside parliament. Before being ousted, Haarde had expressed fears that the economic crisis would lead to a political one. In fact, Iceland may well be the weathervane that points the way towards a troubled 2009. Marko Papic, a geopolitical analyst at Stratfor, argued that “in terms of perception, Iceland is like a canary in the mineshaft. It tells us how bad things can get in the rest of Europe ”. Indeed, following last year's tumultuous riots in Greece ( EurActiv 11/12/08 ), early 2009 has continued in the same vein, with anti–government riots having taken place in Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania so far as social unrest grows. Dominique Strauss–Kahn, president of the International Monetary Fund, warned in late 2008 that “social unrest may happen in many countries, including advanced economies,” as a result of the crisis. Moreover, Papic points out that “there are a number of elections coming up in Europe [in 2009]: in Slovakia , Lithuania , Bulgaria , the Ukraine , and of course – Germany . These countries will have to run their campaigns amidst economic collapse, therefore whatever social unrest there is will be highlighted and increased”. Social Europe : Coming apart at the seams?The worst–case scenario, argues ETUC's Janssen, could see an “explosion of public unrest” and a de facto collapse of the European social model as we know it. “There's a big scandal of which awareness is brewing: governments are now trying to save banks through injecting capital and save companies by giving credit guarantees, and this will translate into higher public deficits,” he said. This in turn, he argued, will lead to pressure from the European Commission, the OECD and economists generally. “This is not sustainable for public finances, so you have to cut social security, which will lead to an attack on social Europe,” the ETUC economist said. People will come to realise, claims Janssen, that in fact they are paying the bill for the excesses of banks and corporate CEO bonus systems. As a result, the combined effects of mass unemployment, collapsing social security systems and heightening social unrest could herald a “major collapse”: “It might be the case, I fear, that the European social model is unravelling,” the economist concluded. Copyright © EurActiv.com PLC January 2009 During January 2009 there was much discussion in the media and official circles of the effect of continued immigration on the UK economy. We give here information from four sources that illustrate the contrasting opinions on this issue:
One. 19th January 2009 Agriculture and care homes will be two of the industries hardest hit by a double whammy of an exodus amongst migrant workers during the recession and new restrictions on non–EU recruits, council leaders will say in a new report published tomorrow. Farmers are warning they will lose money and food will be left to rot if migrants begin to return home. Care homes say that a combination of new restrictions on non–EU workers and the possibility of migrant workers leaving the country could make it impossible to recruit staff without increasing care costs. The new research by the Local Government Association analyses the impact the recession could have on migrant labour in a variety of different industries. Council leaders are today putting forward a three point plan to ensure that the businesses most likely to be affected can cope:
Cllr Margaret Eaton, Chairman of the LGA, a cross party organisation which represents councils in England, said: “If migrant workers begin to return home in large numbers, it could put real strain on some of the key services and industries we all take for granted. This report is a stark reminder that councils and businesses across the country need to be alert to any changes in their local workforce. “Farmers are already saying they’ve lost money because they can’t fill jobs. If seasonal migrant workers can’t be recruited, this will only get worse and losses could be passed on to consumers. Unharvested food will go to waste and food will need to be shipped in from abroad, both of which will damage the environment. “In the case of the care system, migrant workers are the backbone of the workforce. If care homes can’t employ the staff they need at a cost they can afford, it will have a direct impact on the elderly and frail. Those who are already struggling to make ends meet will be deeply concerned by the prospect of a rise in the cost of their care. “Councillors are elected to put local people first and will be leading the way, working with the Learning and Skills Council and Job Centre Plus, to make sure that local people have the skills that businesses need. The Home Office needs to review the shortage occupation list so that care homes up and down the country can keep providing the level of care elderly people deserve, at a cost they can afford. “The LGA is helping councils by publishing a guide on how they can calculate their local population more accurately and spot any changes quickly. This means councils can respond before it’s too late and get people the training they need to fill local vacancies”. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Two. 14th January 2009 Here is an extract from evidence taken in public by the Work and Pensions Select Committee of the House of Commons, UK Parliament. DEPARTMENT FOR WORK AND PENSIONS' RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR WELFARE REFORM Wednesday 14 January 2009 MR JOHN PHILPOTT and MR. GERWYN DAVIES RT HON JAMES PURNELL MP Evidence heard in Public Questions 1–90 USE OF THE TRANSCRIPT 1. This is an uncorrected transcript of evidence taken in public and reported to the House. The transcript has been placed on the internet on the authority of the Committee, and copies have been made available by the Vote Office for the use of Members and others. 2. Any public use of, or reference to, the contents should make clear that neither witnesses nor Members have had the opportunity to correct the record. The transcript is not yet an approved formal record of these proceedings. Q21 John Howell: You touched on this a bit earlier, but what is your experience and your estimate of the effect of the downturn on migrant workers and on immigration. Mr Philpott: We have certainly seen the flows of migrant workers drop, especially those from Eastern Europe. I think the latest figures are probably showing the lowest inflows since early 2005. Unfortunately, we do not have data on the outflows. The migrant worker bodies and the Polish associations and such like, their story is that a lot of the younger people are leaving, going back home, whereas if they have been here for a while and established families, they are more likely to stay and look around for jobs and kind of think of themselves more as members of the British labour market rather than itinerant members of an EU labour market. Q22 John Howell: So are you for or against continuing the ban on workers from Bulgaria and Romania? Mr Philpott: I would continue it for the ---. I am not speaking on behalf of CIPD here. I would maintain it at this particular point in time, because it would be conducive to our labour market recovery not to have a kind of excessive external increase in the supply of labour. It would be good for us to generate more people who are currently economically inactive, to get them back into the workforce and help them in the ways that the other unemployed are being helped, but when you have got a slack labour market, you should not need as many migrant workers and there would be no reason really to relax those conditions. Indeed, it may well be the case that, in the context of the slow down, adjustments to the new points system that will be affecting workers from outside the EU will also perhaps need to be tightened up to reflect our current labour market needs. The point is that with all these things it is about flexibility. Rather than having permanent constraints or latitudes on migration, you should have a policy that makes migration work for you, that makes it easier for people to come in when you need them and possibly restricts entry when you do not. Corrected evidence will be published shortly. Parliamentary material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO on behalf of Parliament. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Three. 14th January 2009 In advance of the publishing of the government's Borders, Immigration and Citizenship Bill, the ippr published a News Release. The ippr said that “proposals to make it more difficult for migrants to gain British citizenship could have damaging consequences for the UK's economic recovery” The ippr went on to warn that if the bill went forward in it's proposed form it would damage the UK's ability to compete with other countries in attracting migrants. At the end of the News Release the ippr put a list of what it termed 'key facts'. These suggested that immigration is likely to decline under present circumstances anyway (implying we do not need further restrictions), and drew attention to existing or future needs for skilled workers in the construction industry and schools. ippr We recently wrote to the ippr (20th January), primarily as a matter of courtesy, asking them if they would mind if we reproduced their news release in full. The ippr replied the same day, not however answering our query, but rather requesting information about our organisation, which we duly sent the same day. A couple of days later we wrote again requesting a reply to our original request. So far we have not had a reply, but that may of course come in the next few days. If it does, and the ippr have no objection to us posting the News Release in full, we will alter this section of our News page appropriately. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Four. 5th January 2009 The OPT sent a letter to the immigration minister, Phil Woolas, claiming that “overpopulation puts Britain's security at risk”. The letter focuses on the projected growth of the UK population during the next few decades, with immigration being the main causal factor. In writing about the letter, OPT's Acting Chairman wrote “rapid population growth, and in particular immigration on the scale we have witnessed in recent years, raises questions about environmental sustainablity....”. The letter welcomes the fact that Woolas had spoken of the need for a population policy. It states the OPT position that such a policy must be based on the number of people a country can support in the future; the policy would aim to maintain both the quality of life of the people and the state of the environment adequate for sustaining that quality level. The letter supports the idea of taking steps to produce an appropriate population policy and makes suggestions as to how the investigations that would be required to formulate the policy could be undertaken. Incidentally, the letter states that the OPT “finds itself the only reputable NGO now campaigning on population/environmernt issues in the UK ”. Read the News Release at: 4th January 2009 “Summary Intellectual copyright remains the property of MigrationWatch UK © 2001 MigrationWatch UK. All rights reserved. 16th December 2008 Background. In October, Immigration Minister Phil Woolas told The Times that the UK government was not going to allow the UK population to increase as far as 70 million (currently it is about 61 million) The Times. This commitment was viewed with scepticsm in some quarters where the view is held that the government is not in control of immigration, and in view of the recent high levels of annual net immigration. The following question and answer is taken from the UK Parliament's Hansard Written Answers for 16th of December 2008. Immigration Mr. Frank Field: To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster with reference to the Answer of 18 November 2008, Official Report, column 408W, on immigration, what the level is of net immigration at which the population of the UK would remain below 70 million on unchanged assumptions about birth rates, mortality and emigration levels and on the basis of the most recent population projections. [243465] Kevin Brennan: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the Authority to reply. Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated December 2008: As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question, pursuant to the answer of 18th November 2008 (Official Report, column 408W) on immigration, regarding what the level of net immigration is at which the population of the UK would remain below 70 million on unchanged assumptions about birth rates, mortality and emigration levels on the basis of the most recent population projections. (243465) Migration assumptions for national population projections are conventionally expressed in terms of net migration (immigration less emigration) rather than for the gross flows separately. However, nominal immigration and emigration totals are used in the projection process mainly to enable plausible age distributions to be calculated for the assumed net migration totals. The 2006–based principal (or central) projection assumed a long–term annual net inflow to the UK of +190,000 persons a year. In this projection, the population of the UK is projected to reach 70 million in 2028. To answer your question, further population projections have been produced by reducing the nominal immigration totals applied in the 2006–based principal projection, but leaving the fertility, mortality and emigration assumptions unchanged. Based on these assumptions, with a long–term net migration inflow of +60,000 a year, the population would reach 70 million in the 2070s. However, with a net migration inflow of +50,000 a year the population would be just below 70 million in 2081, although it would still be continuing to rise. In practice, this may not be a realistic scenario. If immigration fell permanently to levels well below those experienced in recent years, it is likely that this would, in time, lead to a reduction in the level of emigration as well, it is possible to have a range of combinations of levels of immigration and emigration consistent with any particular level of net migration and these would lead to different projected population sizes. House of Commons. Hansard (see column 643W) Parliamentary material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO on behalf of Parliament. 12th December 2008 The European Commission talks at Poznan in Poland have now led to an agreement on tackling climate change. The statement on this agreement by the president of the European Commission is given below. But some environmental organisations consider that the agreement reached is far from being adequate to prevent future catastrophic climate change, and we give links to press releases by WWF, FOE and Greenpeace as well as BBC and Aljazeera articles produced after the agreement was reached. Brussels, Friday 12 December 2008 Today's political agreement on climate change and energy is of momentous importance. The leaders of Europe's 27 Member States have agreed to work together to transform Europe into a low–carbon economy. To make a real difference to energy security in Europe. And to make Europe the pioneer in developing tomorrow's technologies. This is the fruit of two years of hard work by the Commission, the European Parliament and the Council. It has shown the European Union at its best: able to take courageous, long term decisions; to debate problems and find compromises; and to end up with an agreement with teeth – not just a political commitment, but a legally binding text with a guarantee to deliver. Over the next few days, the EU institutions will finalize this deal. A positive vote in the European Parliament next week would set the seal on a remarkable story. As President of the Commission, I am proud that the proposals we made less than a year ago are securing such a strong endorsement. At the heart of this success has been the EU's determination to stay focused on the overriding goal: the 20–20–20 targets for 2020. A 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, a 20% share for renewable energy, and a 20% boost to energy efficiency. The commitment to reach these targets remains 100% intact. From 2013, the amount of emissions allowed by industry will be cut, year by year. Industry which fails to respond will have to pay more. Europe has already shown that the market can be used to create the incentive for change – now the year by year cuts will use this system to drive emissions down. All in a way carefully designed to spread the costs across the EU in the fairest way possible, and to drive jobs and investment towards tomorrow's technologies. This agreement is the most powerful demonstration possible that Europe is prepared to show the way in the global effort to tackle climate change. Europe is the first key player to make a commitment to a 20% reduction by 2020; and the first to accept legally binding rules to make this happen. There remains a lot of work to be done before we can say that the world is giving climate change the attention it needs. But this is the most concrete and the most substantial step taken against climate change since the Kyoto Agreement. However, some environmental groups conclude that the agreement reached falls far short of what Europe needs to do to combat climate change: 1st December 2008 Lord Turner, chairman of the committee said: “Climate change poses a grave threat to human welfare, the environment and the economy. We need to act now, in the UK and as part of a global agreement, to significantly reduce our emissions. It is not too late to tackle climate change, but it will be unless the world takes action soon, and the developed countries need to lead the way with strong commitments and strong delivery against the budgets. The budgets we have proposed are achievable given available and developing technologies, and provided the policies in place are implemented and where necessary reinforced. The reductions required can be achieved at a very low cost to our economy: the cost of not achieving the reductions, at national and global level, will be far greater”. The report urges the government to commit unilaterally to reducing emissions of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the UK by at least 34% in 2020 relative to 1990 levels (21% relative to 2005). This should be increased to 42% relative to 1990 (31% relative to 2005) once a global deal to reduce emissions is achieved. The report sets out how the budgets it proposes can be met. 1st December 2008 Since the late 1960's, British society has become increasingly segregated demographically, economically and socially, according to a new report commissioned from the Social and Spacial Inequalities Research Group at the University of Sheffield by the BBC. The report considers the UK in terms of BBC TV areas, Radio stations and large cities. “Britain has been divided by economic prosperity in a way that has changed who goes where – through migration”. The divide is between the north and the south, the dividing line running diagonally from the Severn Estuary to the Humber estuary. Considering the period 1981–2006 for BBC TV areas, and the percentage increase or decrease of population, regions north of the divide experienced change of minus 1.2 to minus 0.1 (more northerly of the regions) or 0.0 to 5.9 (more southerly regions). South of the divide, change varied from 6.0 to 23.0. A clear north–south divide has developed in Britain between the north and the south in terms of wealth. “...people living below a relative poverty line, and as such excluded from participating in the norms of society” are concentrated in northern areas, while 'asset wealthy' people tend to be found more in southern areas. During the last forty years the 'social mix' in most areas of Britain in tems of age, lifestyle, work and social class has declined; so that today people tend to be living in areas with people of similar age distribution, economic and lifestyle status. Analyses suggest that stronger feelings of isolation and weakened feelings of belonging have developed, with an increasing segregation into groups of people living among their “own kind”. There has been an increase in “political disengagement'” in terms of a decreased proportion of the electorate voting in general elections. This too has shown regional variation, with the highest proportion not voting in recent elections being found in the BBC North West TV area. The report concludes that “economic polarisation is a key driver of social polarisation and political disaffection. Young adults, who have increasingly moved to more affluent cities for work, especially to London, are moving further away from both younger and older generations. As they do so, however, they are also moving into increasingly socially fragmented cities. Areas they feel they belong to less and less”. Social and Spatial Inequalities Research Group 19th November 2008 Net immigration to the UK (total immigration minus total emigration) rose from 191,000 in 2006 to 237,000 in 2007. In fact both immigration and emigration decreased. The reason why net immigration increased was that the decline in immigration was much less than the decline in emigration:
Migration from the A8 European countries (the A8 countries are the east European countries that joined the EU in May 2004):
The great bulk of migrants from the A8 countries in 2007 came from Poland (96,000). There was big differences in UK migration trends between Old and New Commonwealth countries in 2007. ONS and for statistical detail go to the first item in Annex A and click on the web address there, then click on 'First release 2007' then click on '2.01a Citizenship 91–07 final'. 14th November 2008 The House of Lords report on the Economic Impact of Immigration was published on the first of April 2008 (see our News item of that date). Now, on the 14th of November, the report was debated in the House of Lords. The debate took place in the wake of the recent Press Release from the Cross Party Group on Balanced Migration (CPGBM) that claimed that last year thousands of jobs went to economic migrants from outside the European Union, jobs that had not been advertised in the UK first. The group called for the immigration system to be toughened up CPGBM . In the House of Lords report, the committee noted that in carrying out its work, it was hampered by “the serious inadequacy of the existing data on immigration, emigration and the stock of immigrants in the UK”. “There is a clear and urgent need to improve the data and information about gross and net immigration flows to and from the UK, and about the size, geographical distribution and characteristics of the immigrant stock”. The Committee found no evidence for the argument, made by the Government, business and others, that net immigration generates significant economic benefits for the existing UK population. It criticised the Government's use of GDP as an indicator of prosperity, arguing that the total size of the economy is not an indicator of prosperity; rather, attention should be focused on GDP per head of the population, and it concluded that the effects of immigration on GDP per head were small. The report noted that “many businesses and public services at present make use of the skills and hard work of immigrants. But this is not an argument for immigration on a scale which exceeds emigration and thus increases the population of the country”; rising population density could have harmful consequences on housing provision and welfare issues. The committee also concluded that “the argument that sustained net immigration is needed to fill vacancies, and that immigrants do the jobs that locals cannot or will not do, is fundamentally flawed. It ignores the potential alternatives to immigration for responding to labour shortages....”. The committee also pointed out the need to improve the skills of the existing British population. The report had a limited objective, in the sense that it dealt with economic aspects of immigration, “ not...the impacts of immigration on cultural diversity and social cohesion”, and both Lord Griffiths and Baroness Hanham reminded people about this during the debate. Several speakers were keen to point to economic benefits of immigration. However, Lord Best did agree with the report's conclusion that there is a need to improve the skills of the existing British population: As one might expect, some speakers defended, and others criticised the approach and conclusions of the committee. The most strongly worded criticisms of the report came from Lord Peston. He said “...I dislike this report intensely. Indeed, I can tell your Lordships that I regard the report as the worst produced in this House in my 21 and a half years here; I would like to ensure that that is on the record”. “...we have a report in which the opinions of a xenophobic front group such as Migration Watch are given the same weight as those of the Institute for Public Policy Research – an outstanding research body – and the Government themselves. I find this lack of judgment on the part of the committee amazing”. “On the economics, the report is simply a ragbag: a bit of this and a bit of that. At no point is a full set of assumptions laid out, either for the short-term quasi-static model or for a long-term dynamic model”. After further discussion of assumptions, Lord Peston said: “I am even more struck by the total lack of common sense on the part of the Economic Affairs Committee. I think that I am right in saying that it failed to take evidence from some easily accessible foreign entrepreneurs whose activities have clearly benefited our economy”. Lords Wallace, Dubs and Haskel disliked the 'tone' of the report. Lord Dubs claimed “...the anti-immigration lobby had a field day when it (the report) was published”. But Baroness Cox responded to Lord Peston's accusation about Migration Watch: The full debate may be read at Hansard. (Parliamentary material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO on behalf of Parliament). Read an account of the debate at a website dealng with social housing and public sector news 24dash.com 8th September 2008 “The Global Approach to migration can be defined as the external dimension of the European Union's migration policy. It is based on genuine partnership with third countries, is fully integrated into the EU's other external policies, and addresses all migration and asylum issues in a comprehensive and balanced manner. Adopted in 2005, it illustrates the ambition of the European Union to establish an inter–sectoral framework to manage migration in a coherent way through political dialogue and close practical cooperation with third countries. The approach therefore addresses three equally important thematic dimensions: the management of legal migration, the prevention and reduction of illegal migration, and the relation between migration and development”. “The Communication presented today – which ensues from the Communication of June 2008 on A Common Immigration Policy for Europe – aims to be one of the first building blocs of the European Pact on Immigration and Asylum due to be adopted by the October European Council. Besides being a response to the European Council’s call to report on what is being done to implement the Global Approach, it illustrates the usefulness of the Global Approach as a framework to approach migration in a comprehensive manner. It also suggests how implementation can be achieved more efficiently. These proposals imply a strengthening of the policies presented in three specific Commission Communications presented over the past three years, which set out short–term measures in relation to particular geographical areas and countries, and on an interim progress report presented in December 2007. Finally, it also builds on the Tampere European Council in 1999 and The Hague Programme of 2004, which laid the ground for the development of the Global Approach to migration and its role as the external dimension of the European Union's migration policy”. “This Communication suggests both substantive and methodological improvements to the Global Approach, focusing on ways of improving coordination, coherence and synergies. The Communication examines the relevance of the thematic development of the Global Approach. It then focuses on the geographical aspects and suggests a more differentiated approach to cooperation gearing it to the specific context of the various regions and countries. Finally, it considers the Global Approach as a framework for coherence and coordination in achieving better governance of migration flows, and its efficiency in terms of the available financing instruments”. “The analysis in this Communication illustrates the relevance, efficiency and balanced scope of the Global Approach. The Communication also shows that it is now necessary to refine this approach as a way to further improve the attainment of the strategic objectives of the Union as regards migration: to better manage economic migration, to prevent and reduce illegal migration and to make migration and mobility positive forces for development. The Union and its Member States should, to this end, step up their efforts to mainstream and coordinate migration with other external as well as internal policy areas”. “New proposals on how to intensify the dialogue and cooperation with third counties – one of the main principles underlying the Global Approach – are presented. The Global Approach should be adapted to the specific character of the regions and countries it applies to by targeted action as well as by using better the existing multilateral cooperation forums and broadening the existing dialogue. Such improvements should make it possible to manage more effectively the new and evolving challenges and opportunities set by international migration in cooperation with countries in the regions neighboring the EU, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia”. “A comprehensive policy towards migration requires closer coordination among all stakeholders and at all levels, between the EU and the national, regional and local level and with third countries, using a range of instruments. More systematic and regular monitoring and evaluation could also ensure the necessary synergies to increase efficiency. The Commission proposes to enhance and upgrade the migration management capacities of the Union, to strengthen capacity building measures in selected source and transit countries of migration, and to set up mechanisms for coordinating and, possibly, pooling the resources of Member States, Community and third countries to serve the Global Approach priorities”. “The European Council of Heads of State and Government in December 2008 is expected to give guidance on further implementation of the proposals in the Communication. The Commission will thereafter work in close cooperation with Member States to ensure that the guidelines are put into practice” 8th September 2008 The UK Parliament Cross–Party Committee on Balanced Migration (CPGBM) published a report today. The report gives details of the scale and nature of immigration; the impact of immigration on public services; explains why, in its view, the UK needs immigration; looks ahead at the likely demographic impacts of immigration; reviews government policies; describes the system of balanced migration the committee recommends, and assesses the impact and benefits of this balanced migration. This is the proposed balanced migration system: Balanced Migration would seek to bring the number of immigrants settling permanently in the UK into line with the number of emigrants. The main change would be to limit the number of non–EU citizens who are given the right to settle permanently in the UK. The following aspects of the current immigration and asylum systems would not fundamentally change in terms of approach, although there is a strong case for tightening up existing laws and regulations: a) Free movement of people in the European Union. We have no power to control immigration from the European Union so our focus is on economic migrants from outside the EU who wish to stay on and settle in this country. This also reflects the greatest source of immigrants to the UK over the years. (As mentioned on page 12, there was a net movement of 2.3 million people to the UK between 1991 and 2006; only 8% were from the new East European members of the EU and there was a net out flow to the EU 15). In future we can expect the main immigration pressure from countries in the developing world where populations are rising rapidly. For economic migrants from outside the EU who wish to stay on and settle in the UK, the process would work as follows:
(The report goes on to give estimated figures of the people granted the right to settle permanently, in various categories) Parliamentary material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO on behalf of Parliament. 26th August 2008 The population, 495.4 million in 2008, will reach 520.7 million in 2035, but is then projected to gradually decline to reach 505.7 million in 2060. However, there is considerable variation between individual member countries. Thus some countries will actually have a smaller population size in 2060 than in 2008. Of these countries, some will have a decreasing population size trajectory during the whole period (e.g. Bulgaria and Poland). Of those countries projected to have a larger population in 2060 than now, some countries (including the UK and France) will not experience a fall in population after a period of continued growth during the 2008 to 2060 period, rather they are projected to have a continuously rising population size trajectory over the whole period. The population in all member states, as well as in Norway and Switzerland, is getting older and is projected to continue to get older. In all countries the share of the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase. But as with population size, there will be considerable variation between countries in the ageing process. The age dependency ratios are used as indicators of the level of support of the young (aged 0–14 years old) or of the old (aged 65 years or over) by the working age population (conventionally aged 15–64 years old). They are expressed in terms of the relative size of the young or the old age population to the working age population. In 2060, for the EU27 as a whole, the working age population is projected to be smaller by almost 50 million persons compared to 2008. Over the same projection period the population aged 65 years or over is projected to increase by almost 67 million persons. As a result, the old age dependency ratio in 2060 for the EU27 is projected to more than double from its current level. That represents an increase of 28.1 percentage points by 2060. Two–thirds of the countries are expected to experience a decrease of different levels in their working age population. Combined with the general increase of the population aged 65 years or over, the old age dependency ratio in 2060 varies among countries by almost 30 percentage points from the lowest to the highest; in 2008 the difference was 14 percentage points. 21st August 2008 The UK population increased by 388,000, mid-2006 to mid-2007 (roughly equivalent to 1,000 persons per day). During recent decades population growth has increased, but this latest one-year increase (0.6 per cent) is an increase on the average annual increase since 2001 (0.5 per cent). Population increase is caused by first, 'natural increase' (excess of births over deaths) and second, by net immigration (excess of immigration over emigration), the latter making the greater contribution to population growth than the former in recent years. With natural increase in recent times, there has been an increase in fertility, so more births. This in turn has been caused partly by increase in fertility of UK born mothers and partly by an increase in the number of women of childbearing age due to the inflow of female migrants into the UK. Both immigration and emigration have increased in recent years, but with immigration greatly exceeding emigration in each year. The UK population is getting older, so that by mid-2007, the number of people in the retirement ages has now come to be about the same as the number of persons under the age of 16. 20th August 2008 A new report by WWF–UK ('Water footprint') shows how global pressure on available water is increasing, and just how much water the UK actually uses. Water used in the UK (or indeed any other country) consists of a lot more besides the water that runs through our taps, for water is also used by the industries that supply our food and other goods. So in the UK, a country heavily reliant on imports, much of the water we in fact make use of is water in other countries. For example, to produce just one cup of black coffee (without sugar) uses 140 litres of water, according to WWF. Why is pressure on available water supplies increasing? The answer is that globally and in the UK, growth in population size and income levels are the causes. Increased water demand has its most serious effects in countries already experiencing serious water shortages. But globally it has been a cause of the drying up of rivers, destruction of habitat, extinction of species and rise in agricultural prices. 14th August 2008 The nation will be more racially and ethnically diverse, as well as much older, by midcentury, according to projections released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Minorities, now roughly one–third of the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042, with the nation projected to be 54 percent minority in 2050. By 2023, minorities will comprise more than half of all children. By 2050, the minority population – everyone except for non–Hispanic, single–race whites – is projected to be 235.7 million out of a total U.S. population of 439 million. The nation is projected to reach the 400 million population milestone in 2039. The non–Hispanic, single-race white population is projected to be only slightly larger in 2050 (203.3 million) than in 2008 (199.8 million). In fact, this group is projected to lose population in the 2030s and 2040s and comprise 46 percent of the total population in 2050, down from 66 percent in 2008. Meanwhile, the Hispanic population is projected to nearly triple, from 46.7 million to 132.8 million during the 2008–2050 period. Its share of the nation’s total population is projected to double, from 15 percent to 30 percent. Thus, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic. The black population is projected to increase from 41.1 million, or 14 percent of the population in 2008, to 65.7 million, or 15 percent in 2050. The Asian population is projected to climb from 15.5 million to 40.6 million. Its share of the nation’s population is expected to rise from 5.1 percent to 9.2 percent. Among the remaining race groups, American Indians and Alaska Natives are projected to rise from 4.9 million to 8.6 million (or from 1.6 to 2 percent of the total population). The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to more than double, from 1.1 million to 2.6 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 5.2 million to 16.2 million. In 2030, when all of the baby boomers will be 65 and older, nearly one in five U.S. residents is expected to be 65 and older. This age group is projected to increase to 88.5 million in 2050, more than doubling the number in 2008 (38.7 million). Similarly, the 85 and older population is expected to more than triple, from 5.4 million to 19 million between 2008 and 2050. 13th August 2008 The findings of this study indicate that future levels of immigration will have a significant impact on efforts to reduce global CO2 emissions. Immigration to the United States significantly increases world–wide CO2 emissions because it transfers population from lower–polluting parts of the world to the United States, which is a higher–polluting country. On average immigrants increase their emissions four–fold by coming to America. Among the findings:
L. Kolankiewicz and S. A. Camarota, Center for Immigration Studies (USA) from where the full report may be down loaded. UK. Community cohesion and migration. The Communities and Local Government Committee of the House of Commons has published its 10th report, “Community Cohesion and Migration”. Here is the conclusion section of the report. Conclusion. 127. Migration is having significant effects on some local communities across the country. The sheer pace of change experienced in some areas has escalated public concerns about migration to the point where migration has become the single greatest public concern in Britain, overtaking concerns on crime and terrorism. On our visits, some settled residents told us of their belief that there were simply too many migrants in their area, and expressed their views on various negative effects of migration. Community cohesion cannot be improved without addressing and alleviating public concerns about migration. These concerns are not merely based on prejudice, but can often be grounded in genuine anxieties about the visible and practical effects of migration. 128. Migration can have positive benefits for local communities. Much of the health service is dependent upon migrant labour. The Government pointed out that migrants made up 17.8 per cent of the health care workforce. Many care homes are also dependent on migrant labour; migrants made up 13.3 per cent of the social care workforce in 2005–06. Schools can benefit from the arrival of migrant children who help to raise the quality and educational attainment levels of the whole school. The LGA noted that some local authorities have specifically encouraged migration to support the growth of their local economy. The Minister of State for Borders and Immigration, Mr Liam Byrne MP, commented, “Birmingham wants to grow its population by about 100,000 – and we do not think that all of that population is going to come from the resident population”. England is experiencing a rapid growth in the proportion of elderly people in comparison to those of working age, and the arrival of people of working age can help rebalance the overall population. 129. Recent migration has placed particular pressures on local public services in areas that have experienced rapid inward migration, including schools; translation services; social care; English language teaching; policing and the NHS. Currently these services are left under–funded owing to the Government's reliance on allocating money based on flawed population data. The consequence of this is not only vital services left without adequate funding, but detrimental effects on community cohesion as competition increases for limited public resources. The continued under–funding of migration pressures at the local level increases the risk of community tensions escalating, particularly given that the majority of people in the UK already believe that some groups, such as immigrants, get unfair priority access to public services. 130. The Government needs to take immediate action to address public concerns about migration, and to defuse tensions before they lead to disturbances. We have set out a number of steps that the Government needs to take. It must introduce measures to ensure that migrants can access English language tuition in order to integrate into local communities, including ensuring that employers pay towards English language classes for their employees. It should ensure that its actions are co–ordinated across departments and that best practice on integration and cohesion is communicated to local organisations. Most importantly, the Government needs to ensure that local organisations, particularly local authorities, are adequately resourced to cope with local pressures on public services from migration and take action to integrate migrants. Only if it does so can we ensure that England receives the full benefit from past, current and future migration. Parliamentary material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO on behalf of Parliament. To read the full report go to 11th July 2008 A Message from William N. Ryerson, President of Population Media Center and Population Institute: “Today as we commemorate World Population Day, Population Media Center and Population Institute pledge their commitment to help bring population numbers into balance with natural resources, so humanity can live in harmony with the earth. We vow to help create a world where people are educated and empowered to make healthy decisions about their family size; where women have a voice and are heard; where reproductive health services are available and accessible to all; where every family can afford to feed, clothe, and educate their children; where communities live in balance with the earth’s resources; and where together we can protect and share our planet. The world population has reached an unprecedented 6.7 billion people, and it continues to grow by 80 million people each year. As a result of this growth, the world faces unparalleled challenges, including climate change, food and water shortages, and a severe energy crisis. Ninety–nine percent of the world’s population growth is in the world’s poorest countries where people are commonly afflicted by poverty, civil unrest, and scarce resources. These countries are struggling to provide for their existing populations, and even while making strides to improve their infrastructure, they are unable to keep up with the extreme population growth. Developing nations now require about $1 trillion per year in new infrastructure development just to accommodate their population growth – a figure that is very far from being met and is effectively impossible for these countries to generate. One of our main challenges is improving the status of women. This is vital to stabilizing population growth and improving the health and well–being of all humankind. By improving a woman’s standing in society, she will have the opportunity to educate herself and her children, gain access to reproductive health services, and make economic strides to improve her life and that of her family. It is imperative that men play an active role in the expansion of women’s rights and unrestricted access to reproductive health services in developing countries. When men and women are equally valued, it is more likely that population numbers will stabilize, resulting in improved living standards and an increasingly brighter outlook for the future of our environment. Increasing family planning education and access to services also helps to reduce poverty, by allowing families to devote more of their resources to the education and health of each child. Globalization and the interconnectedness of the biosphere, forces us to look at the issue of population with a global lens. Half of the world’s population is under the age of 24, yet family planning information and services remain out of reach for many, particularly for those who often have the most difficulty acquiring the information and services they require to plan their families, such as the poor, the marginalized, and young people. It is critical that we provide them with the education and services necessary to stabilize population numbers and achieve the Millennium Development Goals. It is our responsibility as inhabitants who share this planet to ensure a healthy future. Today, on World Population Day, Population Media Center and Population Institute pledge their commitment to continue to pursue the goal of bringing population numbers into balance with natural resources, to improve the health and well–being of all people and of the planet”. See also BBC News, Transfer of old news items to the archive page. January to June 2008 items transferred to the Archive page January 2010 June to December 2007 items transferred to the Archive page January 2009 January to May 2007 items transferred to the Archive page December 2007 October to December 2006 items transferred to the Archive page March 2007 June to September 2006 items transferred to the Archive page January 2007 January, February, March, April and May 2006 items transferred to the Archive page 21st September 2006 November and December 2005 items transferred to the Archive page 20th May 2006 September and October 2005 items transferred to the Archive page 5th February 2006
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