Human Population Growth and Migration

have serious consequences, globally and for the United Kingdom

Population Growth, Natural Increase and Migration

Population growth is primarily caused by natural increase, that is, the excess of births over deaths. But in any particular region, migration will cause population growth when the amount of immigration exceeds the amount of emigration. And in the United Kingdom at present, migration is a greater cause of population growth than natural increase. Both population growth and migration can affect the quality of the natural environment, the likelihood of conflict, and social cohesion between ethnic groups. In our view, the significance of both population growth and migration are often underestimated by governments and non-governmental organisations.

Population Growth and Migration: Global Aspects

At the global level, human population growth is one significant cause of environmental problems - destruction of natural ecosystems, increased rate of species extinction, soil erosion, falling water tables and depletion of aquifers, pollution of rivers, seas and coastal waters, increase of harmful emissions to the atmosphere. Population growth has in our view, already taken the human population beyond the carrying capacity of the planet.

Through its adverse effect on the environment, population growth is a significant cause of the increase in the number of environmental refugees (people who can no longer secure a livelihood in their own area because of environmental problems such as desertification). The number of environmental refugees will be greatly inflated if, as expected, global warming causes sea levels to rise, inundating vast areas of densely populated land. In the past, abrupt climate temperature changes have occurred. If they occur in the future, agricultural systems may be unable to adapt fast enough, causing massive decrease in food production, which in turn will swell the number of environmental refugees. Environmental refugees may simply be displaced within a country, or they may by international migration move between nations or continents. Such disruptive movements can impede attempts to achieve sustainable development.

We believe population growth can contribute to political instability and conflict. And the great affluence gap between the rich and poor countries has implications for migration: it fuels the desire to emigrate from poor countries, a desire which is likely to be increased as massive population growth continues in these countries. Such migration increases the potential for demographically fuelled international conflict. And declining natural resources will probably increase ‘resource wars’.

Current conflicts in the Middle East could lead to even greater and more widespread conflict. In parenthesis, we believe these Middle East conflicts are not simply a matter of terrorism, but also of western hegemony and western desire to secure oil supplies; continued depletion of these supplies is likely to fuel such conflicts in the near future.

So population growth and migration are very important matters when considering the well being of the planet.

Books reviewed on our Book Reviews page and the comments on these books given in our Comment and Analysis page, show how total collapse of global human society is a very real possibility, and massive further loss of biodiversity is likely.

Population Growth and Migration: the United Kingdom

Turning from the global to the local level, we note that the United Kingdom is one of the most densely populated countries in Europe, its population, we argue, already exceeding carrying capacity. And the latest (2006) set of population projections have the population, 59.8 million in 2004, rising to reach 67.0 million by 2031, an increase of over seven million. Beyond 2031 the population is projected to continue to rise, but at a lower rate of growth, reaching 70.5 million in 2071, a massive increase of 10.7 million from 2004!

As we noted earlier, population growth is caused by natural change (excess of births over deaths) and net international migration. Now nearly 60 per cent of the population growth 2004-2031 is attributable to net international migration. But later, deaths will come to exceed births, the continued population growth then being maintained only by net international migration.

This continued population growth will push the population even further above carrying capacity. The immigration component will, we think, increasingly threaten social cohesion. And the extent that Government relies on immigration to solve skill shortages and labour needs, will in our view, delay the development of a radical policy on participation in the workforce, adequate payment in the low-skilled job sector and pension reform, which will ultimately be required to deal effectively with employment problems including providing adequate support for the ageing population.

The likely global increase in environmental and political refugees, will, in our view, maintain or increase the immigration pressure on the UK.

Clearly population growth and migration (both immigration and emigration) are very important matters for policy making in the United Kingdom.

We invite our readers to think for themselves how population growth and migration may have affected the quality of their lives.

Interaction with our readers- an invitation.
We would like to encourage readers to make use of our e-mail discussion group (the e-mail group page of our web site); it is not difficult to join in. You can then send comments and ask questions, about population growth and migration and related matters, and reply to other people who post to this group.
We are also willing in principle, to post on our Comments and Analysis page, critical comments made by our readers about anything that is written on our web site.

Most recent alterations/additions to the web site (not including additions to the News page)

2nd November 2007. An essay on possible failure to secure adequate future global food supply “Population growth and environmental deterioration. Are things finally coming together for mankind's doom?” added to the analysis section of the Comment and Analysis page.
14th August 2007. A report on a recently published paper by J.Harte “human population as a dynamic factor in environmental degradation” added to the Other Literature page.
July 2007. “Will we be able to feed the world population?” added to the comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
15th May 2007. A report on a paper by D. L. Carr et al “population dynamics and tropical deforestation: state of the debate and conceptual challenges” added to the Other Literature page.
8th April 2007. “Shape of things to come - water crises” added to the comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
Beginning of April 2007. A review of a UK all party parliamentary group report “Return of the population growth factor. Its impact upon the Millennium Development Goals” added to the Other Literature page, together with page navigation aids.
March 2007. “Yes, we are right to give some emphasis to climate change on our web site that focuses on population growth and migration” added to the comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
12th March 2007. Navigation aids added to the Comment and Analysis page.
Early March 2007. A review by Peter Salonius of a book by W.Stanton “The rapid growth of human populations” (Book Reviews page); a paper by Dietz et al “driving the human ecological footprint” (Other Literature page); two items in the Comment section of the Comment and Analysis page: “Student attempt to silence Oxford academic who has explored the adverse effects of immigration on society” and “Elephant cull. And the global human population?”.
Mid–February 2007. A review by Professor A. A. Bartlett, of the Scientific American September 2006 'special' issue on energy supply and the climate change challenge, pointing out the neglect of the implications of population size and growth, added to our Book Reviews page. And a comment with the title “We feel we must reiterate: Improving technology and reducing consumption will not by themselves solve our problems. We need to control population as well” added to our Comment and Analysis page.
Mid–January 2007. Other Literature page. Reports on two recently published papers: 'Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition' (a 2006 paper by D. Coleman), and 'Imagine earth without people' (article in The New Scientist, 2006).
End of November and early December 2006. The UK section of the Population Trends page, principally its section h), was updated.
End of October 2006. The Population Trends page was updated.
Early May 2006. Book Reviews page. A review of James Lovelock's new book “ The revenge of Gaia”was added.

Gaia Watch. Private Limited Company registered in Cardiff, Company No. 3190710. Registered office address: 33, Bingham Park Crescent, Sheffield, South Yorkshire S11 7BH.

Registered Charity (UK) No. 1060769. Charity Objectives. To advance the education of the public by conducting research into (1) the growth and movements of human populations and the relationships of these factors to all aspects of environmental health and social well-being (2) all aspects of mans impact on the environment (3) the ecology of remaining natural and semi-natural areas in the world, and to disseminate the useful results of such research.

e-mail address: jbarker@population-growth-migration.info