Human Population Growth and Migration have serious consequences, globally and for the United Kingdom Population Growth, Natural Increase and Migration Population growth is primarily caused by natural increase, that is, the excess of births over deaths. But in any particular region, migration will cause population growth when the amount of immigration exceeds the amount of emigration. And in the United Kingdom at present, migration is a greater cause of population growth than natural increase. Both population growth and migration can affect the quality of the natural environment, the likelihood of conflict, and social cohesion between ethnic groups. In our view, the significance of both population growth and migration are often underestimated by governments and non-governmental organisations.
DID YOU KNOW? | The global human population is projected to grow from 6.8 billion in 2009 to 9.1 billion in 2050, an increase approaching the present population sizes of India and China combined. | By the mid-2030's, if global consumption continues as it is now, we will need the equivalent of two planets to sustain the global population. | The UK population is projected to grow from 61.9 million in 2009 to 85.3 million in 2081, an increase roughly equivalent to three times the present population size of London. | The main cause of continued UK population growth will be immigration. | READ ON IN THE NEXT TWO BOXES ! | SOME KEY POINTS | 1. The impact of a population on the environment depends on P, population size and A, affluence or per capita consumption. But it also depends on T, how current technology affects environmental impact. Hence the well known impact equation I=P×A×T. The significance of population growth is often minimised or ignored by the media and environmental organisations, while the high consumption in industrialised countries is often stressed. Migration between countries affects national environmental impacts but this also receives little attention by environmental organisations and some media. Gaia Watch seeks to redress the balance by drawing attention to -
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CONTINUED HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH AND MIGRATION | 1. Tropical rain forests continue to be cut down to provide land for food and oil crops. Why? A significant cause is – CONTINUED HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH | 2. Ocean fisheries continue to be depleted, and this is aggravated by CONTINUED HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH | 3. Fresh water aquifers continue to be depleted in an effort to continue to fulfil the needs of agriculture and human consumption. This is greatly aggravated by – CONTINUED HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH | 4. In many sub-Saharan countries and some other countries, crop yields per unit area have fallen greatly because of over intensive agricultural practices causing decrease in soil fertility. Why? The most significant cause is usually – CONTINUED HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH | 5. Greenhouse gas emissions, causing global warming, continue to increase. Why? Increased per capita consumption in some countries and – CONTINUED HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH | 6. Global warming will cause some densely populated areas of the world to be submerged in the oceans and many other areas to suffer disruption of agricultural production. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLOW OF ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES WITHIN AND BETWEEN COUNTRIES WITH CONSEQUENT DANGERS TO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL STABILITY | 7. Built up areas continue to increase in size, and often in density, causing loss of vital agricultural land and natural ecosystems, and making governmental control much more difficult, with the potential to increase community tensions and conflict. Why? Most significant causes – URBANIZATION AND CONTINUED HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH | 8. In the UK now and in the future, why does the population continue to grow massively? PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION | 9. Continued net immigration of persons of different cultures to the native peoples, in the UK and other countries, COULD THREATEN SOCIAL COHESION | | More Key points: NEGLECT OF POPULATION GROWTH BY GOVERNMENTS AND THE MEDIA, and THE ROLE OF GAIA WATCH | | 1. The adverse impact of mankind on the environment is well summarised by the Impact equation:
I = Population × Affluence (or consumption) × Technology. Governments, the media and major environmental organisations, often draw attention to the excessive consumption in 'developed' countries compared with 'developing countries', rightly recommending reduction of consumption in the former. But they say much less about population growth or they deny this is an underlying cause of environmental impact. Now population growth, still massive in some developed countries, is mainly in developing countries, and policies should be developed and adopted, as a matter of urgency, to mitigate this growth, including specific population growth reduction policies. We think the downplaying of the significance of population growth, especially as regards Africa, is probably mainly through belief in Christian and humanist ideologies and a sense of guilt about past influence of developed countries on African countries (see also point 3). 2. In the UK it is projected that the population will continue to grow, and grow by over three times the present population size of London by AD 2081. Think of how much agricultural land and land of scenic beauty so valuable both for maintaining ecosystems mankind needs and for recreation, will be lost to new housing and infrastructure. Net immigration will be the main cause of this continued population growth. Yet the government the media and major environmental organisations largely remain silent on, or minimise the significance of these effects of immigration. 3. Why this (sometimes deliberate) failure to draw attention to the adverse impact of population growth and migration? In addition to reasons already mentioned, we suggest four reasons. (i) There seems to be an ingrained belief in humans that population growth is good and should not be tampered with. (ii) Officials have not been educated to understand the ecological and social impact of human population growth. (iii) Most economists believe (mistakenly in our view) that continued quantitative economic growth is needed in the industrialised nations and consider that continued population growth promotes such economic growth. In the European Union current and future population growth is mainly caused by immigration; not surprisingly, organisations and individuals who accept the need for such economic growth draw attention to the supposed benefits of population growth and migration, rather than to adverse effects of same (see the footnote at the bottom of the present page). (iv) Many perhaps most developed countries - this certainly applies to the UK - are dominated by what we term the 'left–wing–liberal politically correct brigade' (LWLPCB) which is driven by an ideology encompassing an uncritical belief in globalization, the belief that we must have open doors to all who may face persecution in home countries, and a firm belief in multiculturalism. Consequently continued immigration is viewed favourably. And for environmental organizations a fifth reason – fear of losing members who share the LWLPCB ideology. 4. Consequently the public are not informed about the serious adverse consequences of continued population growth. However many people know enough, or think they know enough about continued immigration, to be worried about it; but the dominance of the LWLPCB means they are too scared ( or 'prudent') to take issue with government and main political parties on this matter. Democracy (for the native peoples!) is thrown out of the window. 5. THIS IS WHY THE WORK OF GAIA WATCH IS SO IMPORTANT. IT IS OUR ROLE TO PROVIDE BASIC INFORMATION ABOUT POPULATION TRENDS AND THE ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF THESE TRENDS, INCLUDING THE DANGERS OF CONTINUED MIGRATION DRIVEN POPULATION GROWTH, AND AT THE SAME TIME TO CHALLENGE POLITICAL PARTIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL ORGANISATIONS ON THEIR APPROACH TO POPULATION ISSUES. | | Please donate to support our educational work |  |
Population Growth and Migration: Global Aspects At the global level, human population growth is one significant cause of environmental problems - destruction of natural ecosystems, increased rate of species extinction, soil erosion, falling water tables and depletion of aquifers, pollution of rivers, seas and coastal waters, increase of harmful emissions to the atmosphere. Population growth has in our view, already taken the human population beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Through its adverse effect on the environment, population growth is a significant cause of the increase in the number of environmental refugees (people who can no longer secure a livelihood in their own area because of environmental problems such as desertification). The number of environmental refugees will be greatly inflated if, as expected, global warming causes sea levels to rise, inundating vast areas of densely populated land. In the past, abrupt climate temperature changes have occurred. If they occur in the future, agricultural systems may be unable to adapt fast enough, causing massive decrease in food production, which in turn will swell the number of environmental refugees. Environmental refugees may simply be displaced within a country, or they may by international migration move between nations or continents. Such disruptive movements can impede attempts to achieve sustainable development. We believe population growth can contribute to political instability and conflict. And the great affluence gap between the rich and poor countries has implications for migration: it fuels the desire to emigrate from poor countries, a desire which is likely to be increased as massive population growth continues in these countries. Such migration increases the potential for demographically fuelled international conflict. And declining natural resources will probably increase ‘resource wars’. Current conflicts in the Middle East could lead to even greater and more widespread conflict. In parenthesis, we believe these Middle East conflicts are not simply a matter of terrorism, but also of western hegemony and western desire to secure oil supplies; continued depletion of these supplies is likely to fuel such conflicts in the near future. So population growth and migration are very important matters when considering the well being of the planet. We would particularly like to draw attention to the following items about the global situation. Click on any item to go to it directly. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Although they have not been revised since 2002, our two essays on the subject of 'how many people can the earth support?' still provide a useful basic introduction to this important topic (Analysis section, Comment and Analysis page). | Books reviewed on our Book Reviews page and the comments on these books given in our Comment and Analysis page, show how total collapse of global human society is a very real possibility, and massive further loss of biodiversity is likely.
Population Growth and Migration: the United Kingdom Turning from the global to the local level, we note that the United Kingdom is one of the most densely populated countries in Europe, its population, we argue, already exceeding carrying capacity.And the latest (2006) set of population projections have the population, 60.6 million in 2006, rising to reach 72.7 million in 2036, an increase of twelve million. This increase is far greater than the present size of of Greater London (7.6 million in 2007). Beyond 2031 the population is projected to continue to rise reaching 85.3 million in 2081, a massive increase of nearly 25 million from 2006, an increase three times the present size of Greater London! As we noted earlier, population growth is caused by natural change (excess of births over deaths) and net international migration. Now nearly 60 per cent of the population growth 2004-2031 is attributable to net international migration. But later, deaths will come to exceed births, the continued population growth then being maintained only by net international migration. This continued population growth will push the population even further above carrying capacity. The immigration component will, we think, increasingly threaten social cohesion. And the extent that Government relies on immigration to solve skill shortages and labour needs, will in our view, delay the development of a radical policy on participation in the workforce, adequate payment in the low-skilled job sector and pension reform, which will ultimately be required to deal effectively with employment problems including providing adequate support for the ageing population. The likely global increase in environmental and political refugees, will, in our view, maintain or increase the immigration pressure on the UK. Clearly population growth and migration (both immigration and emigration) are very important matters for policy making in the United Kingdom. We would particularly like to draw attention to the following items about the United Kingdom. Click on any item to go to it directly. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | We invite our readers to think for themselves how population growth and migration may have affected the quality of their lives.
Interaction with our readers- an invitation.
We would like to encourage readers to make use of our e-mail discussion group (the e-mail group page of our web site); it is not difficult to join in. You can then send comments and ask questions, about population growth and migration and related matters, and reply to other people who post to this group.
We are also willing in principle, to post on our Comments and Analysis page, critical comments made by our readers about anything that is written on our web site.
Most recent alterations/additions to the web site (not including additions to the News page) 1st July 2009. A summary and review of Vandana Shiva's 2008 book “Soil not oil. Climate change, peak oil and food insecurity”, added to the Book Reviews page.
24th June 2009. “Election Protests in Iran. Were demographic factors involved?”. Added to the Comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
20th June 2009. Four tables (including a donation button) added to the top section of this Home page and a footnote added at the bottom of the page, with minor alterations 22nd, 26th and 27th of June.
27th February 2009. “Music, Chess and other Sins: Segregation, Integration, and Muslim Schools in Britain". Added to the Other Literature page.
13th February 2009. “The right to know. The duty to inform. Examples of 'Politically Correct Brigade' fears about uncomfortable facts being made known”. Added to the Comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
21st January 2009. A Communities and Local Government report “Sources of resentment, and perceptions of ethnic minorities among poor whites in England” was added to the Other literature page.
Mid-January 2009.The Global section of the Population Trends page was updated.
30th December 2008.Two reports on the impact of migration on UK employment, added to the Analysis section of the Comment and Analysis page.
30th September 2008. The European section of the Population Trends page was updated.
21st May 2008. “Population growth and environmental deterioration. The neglected factor in a new report”. Added to the Comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
18th May 2008. The UK section of the Population Trends page was updated.
26th April 2008. “Global food crisis. A very inadequate response”. Added to the comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
November 2007. “By stealth and deceit. Camoflaged spread of Muslim influence?” Added to the comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
2nd November 2007. An essay on possible failure to secure adequate future global food supply “Population growth and environmental deterioration. Are things finally coming together for mankind's doom?” Added to the analysis section of the Comment and Analysis page.
14th August 2007. A report on a recently published paper by J.Harte “human population as a dynamic factor in environmental degradation” added to the Other Literature page.
July 2007. “Will we be able to feed the world population?” added to the comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
15th May 2007. A report on a paper by D. L. Carr et al “population dynamics and tropical deforestation: state of the debate and conceptual challenges” added to the Other Literature page.
8th April 2007. “Shape of things to come - water crises” added to the comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
Beginning of April 2007. A review of a UK all party parliamentary group report “Return of the population growth factor. Its impact upon the Millennium Development Goals” added to the Other Literature page, together with page navigation aids.
March 2007. “Yes, we are right to give some emphasis to climate change on our web site that focuses on population growth and migration” added to the comment section of the Comment and Analysis page.
12th March 2007. Navigation aids added to the Comment and Analysis page.
Early March 2007. A review by Peter Salonius of a book by W.Stanton “The rapid growth of human populations” (Book Reviews page); a paper by Dietz et al “driving the human ecological footprint” (Other Literature page); two items in the Comment section of the Comment and Analysis page: “Student attempt to silence Oxford academic who has explored the adverse effects of immigration on society” and “Elephant cull. And the global human population?”.
Mid–February 2007. A review by Professor A. A. Bartlett, of the Scientific American September 2006 'special' issue on energy supply and the climate change challenge, pointing out the neglect of the implications of population size and growth, added to our Book Reviews page. And a comment with the title “We feel we must reiterate: Improving technology and reducing consumption will not by themselves solve our problems. We need to control population as well” added to our Comment and Analysis page.
Mid–January 2007. Other Literature page. Reports on two recently published papers: 'Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition' (a 2006 paper by D. Coleman), and 'Imagine earth without people' (article in The New Scientist, 2006).
End of November and early December 2006. The UK section of the Population Trends page, principally its section h), was updated.
End of October 2006. The Population Trends page was updated.
Early May 2006. Book Reviews page. A review of James Lovelock's new book “ The revenge of Gaia”was added.
| FOOTNOTE | | ECONOMIC GROWTH | Most economists and governments consider that to maintain a healthy economy, there must be quantitative growth in that economy. And in some circumstances such as industrial countries with an ageing population, continued population growth promotes economic growth. However, the planet, or any country such as the UK, is of finite size. Economic growth and population growth cannot continue for ever. Further, economists in their accounts have generally ignored the harmful effects on the environment of economic growth. Herman Daly, former senior economist in the World Bank's Environment Department has repeatedly made these arguments. | As natural resources ('natural capital') become depleted, it becomes more expensive to extract sufficient quantity (e.g. ocean fish catches). And increased growth comes increasingly to entail unpleasant effects like pollution and congestion. The point is reached when economic growth becomes uneconomic growth. We need to change, Daly argues, from promoting quantitative economic growth, to promoting qualitative development.
Two useful articles by Daly are:
(1) “Economics in a full world” Scientific American September 2005; (2) “On a road to disaster” New Scientist 18th October 2008. |
Gaia Watch. Private Limited Company registered in Cardiff, Company No. 3190710. Registered office address: 33, Bingham Park Crescent, Sheffield, South Yorkshire S11 7BH. Registered Charity (UK) No. 1060769. Charity Objectives. To advance the education of the public by conducting research into (1) the growth and movements of human populations and the relationships of these factors to all aspects of environmental health and social well-being (2) all aspects of mans impact on the environment (3) the ecology of remaining natural and semi-natural areas in the world, and to disseminate the useful results of such research. e-mail address: jbarker@population-growth-migration.info
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